Let’s start with Friday. The Tribe’s improbale run began in the strangest of places - a cold, empty Coliseum, with about 10 people in the student section, and the Tribe down by 6 with 1:25 to play. After taking such a leap forward in the regular season, was all hope going to be washed away by Georgia State, again!?!?!??!

But that was when David Schneider showed what was so different about this team. After a Nathan Mann jumper to make the lead 4, a DJ Jones back-court violation gave the fans hope. And then David gave them confidence. A deep 3 from the player we lovingly refer to as “Frodo” made the score 54-53. Two made GSU free throws later, we are down by 3 again, this time with 25 seconds left. But don’t panic, Schneider rushes it down court, runs the baseline and puts up an ugly little runner that somehow fell. Immediately the Tribe fouled, and this time the Panthers hit 1 of 2. So it is a 2 point game with 8 seconds left, and the Tribe called timeout. The logical choice is to get the ball to Sumner or Kisielius for an easy lay-up, right? Not so, David Schneider, gets across half court, puts up a 25-foot, off-balance 3, it rattles in, and with 1.5 seconds left all hell breaks loose. The Tribe is up by 1 with a second and a half left. A GSU prayer falls short, and the Tribe is moving on to a red-hot ODU team.

The 2 biggest concerns after scratching out a W vs. GSU were the seniors - Nathan Mann and Laimis Kisielius - shooting a combined 3-17 from the floor and 0-11 from 3. Everybody in the stands knew they would need to step up for the Tribe to even keep it close against ODU.

And step up they did. 8 first half points from LK gave the Tribe a 24-23 lead going into the intermission, and hope that this could actually happen. ODU is always a good team, but become great when they shoot well from 3(the difference between our win @ ODU and loss at home), and holding them to 16% from long distance at the half was huge.

The Tribe extended their lead throughout the half, but couldn’t get any breathing room until the 10 minute mark where Danny Sumner took over. In a 2 minute span he scored 8 straight Tribe points, with 2 threes going in and getting fouled on  the third where he drained 2 of 3. Those were 8 of his 13 second half points, and his progression throughout the season was highlighted in this tourney.

But back to the game, freshman PG Darius James got the Monarchs back into the game with a trey that brought the Monarchs within 5, followed by a Brian Henderson lay-up that brought ODU within 3. The lead see-sawed back and forth between 2 and 6 points, until ODU’s final push with a minute left capped off by a Gerald Lee lay-up giving the Monarchs their first lead since the first half, at 58-57. The only mistake they made was leaving too much time for the Tribe, and Mr. Clutch did it again, burrying a 3 with 1:17 left. ODU milked the clock down to about 45 seconds, and 8 over-the-back fouls and 1 lay-up later, the game was tied with 37 seconds left. Schneider brings it down the court and with 7 seconds left(cough) Nathan Mann finds the ball and a shot to win. He spins past a pick, and puts up another deep 3, that rattles around the rim, bounces off the glass and falls in. Wow. 63-60 with 7 seconds left. They inbound the ball to an open Brandon Johnson who gets a good look at the 3, but it does not fall and Nathan Mann - who else? - pulls it down to preserve the winner.

However ODU shouldn’t have had the chance they had. The second Nathan Mann touched the ball the clock stopped at 7.5 seconds, where he spun and nailed the 3. This took at least 4-5 seconds, and a crucial clock error was added to the list of things this team had to overcome to get where they are.

And we were facing a well-rested VCU team. On their court. After 2 emotional games. I don’t think anybody really gave us a shot. Except us.

A 6-point halftime deficit had the Rams sitting pretty, but a statement was made via 6 unanswered points in 2 minutes making the score even at 28. The lead changed hands 6 times after that, and came to a crucial tie with 3:26 left. An Eric Maynor 3 capped an 8-point VCU run to tie the game at 51, and was met with 2 and a half minutes of scoreless play. Finally, with 50 seconds left, Laimis broke the tie by nailing a 3 to give the Tribe a 3-point lead. But, like always, the Rams had answer in a Jamal Shuler 3 to tie it up. So like the last 2 days, the Tribe had the ball inside a minute with a chance to win the game. And becoming the third hero in 3 days, Laimis Kisielius took I want to say Mike Anderson to the bucket and banked one in off the glass from 6 feet to give the Tribe a 56-54 lead with 3 seconds left that wouldn’t be overcome. William & Mary is playing on ESPN in the CAA Tournament. Holy crap.

Monday night was possibly the best moment in the last 20 years of Tribe athletics. To see 25 or so students already in line 2 hours early to get into a game an hour away is so far from the norm at the college it is unreal. The students brought everything they had, as did the alums, as did the fans of everybody but GMU that attended the game last night, but Mason just had too many weapons to be stopped. However this game is not a sign of the end. A new era of Tribe basketball began last night. Losing Kisielius and Mann will certainly hurt, they were great players. But Danny Sumner finally showed his ability to dominate. And David Schneider is THE perfect point guard. He doesn’t do too much until he needs to. His feel for the game is incredible. Pete Stein played awesome defense the entire tournament and gets his share of points every single game. Marcus Kitts is going to be a star. He rebounds so well and plays like he is 7 feet tall. He looks a little lost in a zone defense and needs to finish better, but those things will come with experience. Darnell brings a great ability to penetrate that we really don’t have. Sexton returns next year as a sophomore, and he rarely misses from 3. It is unreal how well he shoots. Add in the return of Alex Smith and we know the team will be special next year.

But as if that isn’t enough to compete, I think the biggest sleeper for next year is Arkansas transfer Sean McCurdy. He has all kinds of talent and is the prototypical PG. I was told by somebody very very very close to the situation that he immediately became the fastest player on the team the first time he stepped on the court, and can shoot 3’s with the best of them. I have a feeling next year’s team will be the Tribe has seen in 30 or so years.

And with that, I’d like to salute the outgoing seniors.

Laimis, isn’t it great to see a player reach his potential? Laimis had been a disappointment for most of the 07-08 season, but his ability to turn it up to a level we had rarely seen for 3 straight days was invaluable. I will definitely miss Laimis, not only because he gives you confidence about your team just by being on the court, and was an instant match-up problem, but because he was a hilarious person that I hope every Tribe supporter got to meet.

Nathan, he is pretty much everything you can hope for out of a captain. He hit all kinds of big shots this year, and who doesn’t love a thorn in ODU’s side? That desperation 3 from half-court at the Ted, plus the game-winner on Saturday, what a player. You could always count on him to get the team fired up in big moments, yet he would also get in someone’s face if he didn’t like what they were doing. His spot will be tough to fill.

Kyle, I’m sure even he will admit his senior year wasn’t what he had hoped. Last season he played a huge part in the Tribe’s success, but didn’t really get as much PT during the regular season. Well that all changed this weekend. Kyle provided huge minutes and not only rested Nathan, but was the perfect team player. He rebounded well and played strong defense in games where every little thing counted.

And Stratt. Most walk-ons never see the court, but Stratt is not “most walk-ons” by any means. He provided size down-low when we needed it most without Alex, and puts the ball in the basket when given the shot(10 points vs. Houston Baptist anyone?????). Two-Five was easily one of my favorite players on the team, and Tribe basketball will not be the same without him wearing the jersey.

So thanks to all the seniors and the entire team and coaching staff for such a great season. Next year we will be back stronger than ever. Go Tribe!!!!!!!!

Behind the solid post player of Malik Hairston, and the 3-4 different wings they have that can drain the 3, Towson will pull the 9 over 8 “upset” fairly easily. TU: 75  HU: 64

Game 2: W&M vs. Georgia State

After last year we really can’t take anything for granted, but this should be a pretty easy win. A rested Laimis Kilielius should be a productive LK, and as long as he doesn’t go 1-10 again the final score will be…W&M: 68 GSU: 54

Game 3: Delaware vs. Drexel

Elegar will cause the Hens some trouble early, but you can’t win conference tournament games on one guy, and the Hens will pull out a close winner. UD: 72 DU: 71

Game 4: Northeastern vs. JMU

This game will be the only blowout of the first round, with JMU playing uninspired ball due to their unstable coaching situation. Matt Janning will be unstoppable as usual and the Huskies will win by 20. NU: 82 JMU: 60

ROUND 2

VCU vs. Towson

I would like to see Towson give VCU a scare, but they just don’t have enough in the arsenal. Expect VCU to keep a solid lead early and go on a second half run to put it out of reach. VCU: 82 TU: 65

ODU vs. W&M

The Tribe will go to Sunday in the CAA Tournament for the first time in forever, pulling the minor upset of ODU. Cold Monarch shooting and suffocating Tribe defense will be the keys to the game. Gerald Lee will keep it close with his interior play, but fatigue and foul trouble will make him fade late. W&M: 58 ODU: 55

UNCW vs. Delaware

Similar to the VCU game, the Hawks will just have too much for the Hens to handle. A big game from Kuljanin and a steady performance from Carter will lead to an easy UNCW…W. UNCW: 78 UD: 65

George Mason vs. Northeastern

My second upset of the semis, a performance for the ages from Matt Janning gives the Huskies a 4-point win over a Mason team that has been inconsistent all year. NU: 66 GMU: 62

ROUND 3

VCU vs. W&M

All things equal I think the Tribe would have a shot at upsetting VCU, but playing their third game in 3 days on pretty much a VCU home court, Eric Maynor and the Rams will be too much to contain. Expect over 20 from EM. VCU: 61 W&M: 52

UNCW vs. Northeastern

The matchup of Matt Janning vs. TJ Carter will be a fun one to watch, but the dub will win this due to the supporting cast. Fountain, Lacy, Tomko, Hendley, Kuljanin are a little bit better than Adako, Ojougboh, Allen, and Spates. UNCW: 79 NU: 74

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

VCU vs. UNCW

A lot of games are determined by desire. At this point, in my opinion, VCU has an at-large bid locked up, while on the other hand UNCW has 4 seniors that don’t want to be playing their last game. In a spirited, well fought game similar to last year, this season the home team doesn’t pull out the victory and UNCW gets a last second stop that gives them a tourney bid.

UNCW: 76
VCU: 74

Eric Maynor - CAA POY
Will Thomas - Runner up
Antoine Agudio
Matt Janning
TJ Carter

Second Team:

Gerald Lee
Frank Elegar
Jamal Shuler
Folarin Campbell
Validimir Kuljanin

All-CAA Rookie Team:

Chad Tomko - CAA ROY
Larry Sanders - Runner up
Joey Rodriguez
Charles Jenkins
Alphonso Dawson

Coach of the Year:

Tony Shaver
Benny Moss - Runner  up
Anthony Grant

Tourney Preview will be up tomorrow.

The Rams, behind guards Eric Maynor and Jamal Shuler, have easily been the best team in the conference with a 14-3 record and 22-6 overall record. They are the only team in the CAA with a shot at an at-large bid as they are 45th in the country in RPI, and have big wins over Bradley, Maryland, Houston, and Akron. Pomeroy says they have an 82% chance of beating the Tribe tonight.

The combo of Junior PG Eric Maynor and Senior SG Jamal Shuler has been lethal this year, with them combining for 34 points a game, almost half of VCU’s total points. They also combine for about 9 rebounds a game. The incredible thing about Maynor is that he isn’t only scoring a lot(18 per), but he also has almost 150 assists to 80 turnovers. Shuler is more of the 3 point shooter, but he has diversified his game this year and will throw down if given the opportunity. VCU goes as these two go, and I’m sure Shaver will be thinking about that when he calls his defenses today.

VCU’s freshman class definitely proved they will be special this year. 5 of the six players they pulled in have contributed this year, with Ed Nixon, Lance Kearse, Joey Rodriguez, Larry Sander, and Kirill Pishchalnikov. Both Sanders and Rodriguez are starting, with and Rodriguez has held down the point with 76 assits and 48 turnovers to go along with a little under 6 points per game. Larry Sanders is scoring 4.5 points per, but more importantly is pulling down about 5 rebounds per game for the Rams. Kearse, Nixon, and Kirill are also getting PT every game have made solid contributions.

I would be much more confident in the Tribe if the game wasn’t so meaningful for VCU, but with that in the equation I don’t have much confident in the Green and Gold pulling it out. VCU pulls away late for an 8-point winner.

VCU-68
WM-60

GMU. Currently tied for second place in the CAA with UNCW at 11-5. They are 19-9 on the year with their biggest win over Kansas State, and are in At-Large consideration as they have an RPI of 72. They went on a red-hot streak towards the middle of the year, winning big over ODU, VCU, and Madison over a 2 week span. However they have lost 3 of their last 5 and are ripe for an upset.

Mason has been led this year, not shockingly, by senior center Will Thomas. He is averaging 16.3 points per game on the year, one of the best numbers in the league, to go along with 10.5 boards per. He also has a 3/2 assist/turnover ratio which shows what a great passer he is for a big man. On top of all that, he is shooting 63% from the field. He is a monster.

The other key member of the 06 Final Four run is Folarin Campbell, a senior 2 guard for the Patriots. Campbell is averaging 15.4 points per game and 4.4 boards per. He is a complete player that will do a little bit of everything, as he can shoot the 3, makes his foul shots, gets a few steals per game, etc etc. He is one of the Pat’s 3 strong guards, along with John Vaugn and Dre Smith(very underrated in my opinion).

This is pretty much a must win for the Tribe, and not so much for the Patriots, but their motivation won’t be lacking as this is the last game in the Patriot Center for 2 of the big 2006 players. Mason has been disappointing their fans all season with their inconsistent play, and they will drop a game they should win Wednesday night by double digits.

WM: 75
GMU: 63

While they are a program rich in history, the LUC Ramblers have been very down this year, to the tune of a 8-16 record and a 232 RPI. They are coming off one of their biggest wins of the year, a victory over Valparaiso, and will be looking for an upset at Kaplan this Saturday.

JR Blount, a 6-1 Junior from Milwaukee, has led the Ramblers in scoring this year. He is dropping an eyelash under 15 points per game and a little below 4 board per. He is only shooting 38% from the field, not something you would expect from a top scorer, so all indications point to him not being a dominant type of player.

Junior foward Leon Young has been the most efficient scorer for LUC this season. The 6-6 PF from Long Beach is shooting 53% from the field and is averaging about 12 points per game. He is second on the team in rebounds, at 5.7 per. It is kind of surprising that he does not see the court more, as the numbers dictate that he is their top player.

This game really shouldn’t be close. They can’t shoot(40% from the field, 26% from 3), hold onto the ball(.8 assist/turnover ratio), or play defense(opponents shooting 45% against them). The Tribe will get an early lead and keep it rolling behind a great student section.

WM: 79
LUC: 61

After a solid start to the year out of conference, Drexel has had a rough go in conference play. A 11-16 overally record, 4-11 in conference, has granted them a 217 RPI and 254 Pomeroy rating. They are battling GSU for the 12th seed in the CAA tourney, but having 2 of their last 3 games against weak opponents is in their favor. Pomeroy gives W&M a 74% chance of winning on Wednesday night and haulting the losing streak.

Frank Elegar remains the Dragons best player, and is controlling the paint shooting 57% and leading the team in blocked shots. Keeping Peter Stein out of foul trouble will be key, as Steve Hess on one leg will have difficulty stopping this all-CAA candidate. If Tribe could give him 2-3 early fouls this could get ugly fast.

I don’t see this game being all that close, as the Tribe beat them at the DAC(tough place to play). I would rest Kisielius if i were Shaver, as he is definitely not the same player he was 3 weeks ago. If they get Elegar in trouble early it could be worse, but I see a 12 point winner.

WM-73
DU-61

gotribe

Towson is 9-15 on the year plus 5-9 in the CAA. They have been solid at home this year, but lost to most of the teams in our range - ODU and Mason. They have an RPI of 248, and Pomeroy has the Tribe winning this one by a point. The Tigers are tied for eigth with Hofstra, and a couple wins could give them a favorable matchup in the first round of the tourney.

CofC transfer Junior Hairston will be the key to stopping the Tigers. He is almost averaging a double-double on the year, with 12.4 points per game and 9.7 rebounds. He has 46 blocks on the year and is shooting 46%, so Peter Stein better come to play.

Josh Thornton will also be key for the Tigers today as their top shooter. He is averaging 11.9 points per game and is shooting 41% from 3 point land. He struggles from the foul stripe at 58%, but shoots 44% from the floor - pretty good for a guard.

The Tribe will need to step up on the road against a pesky Towson team, and this game could really go either way. However, I think the Tribe will step up when it’s needed and pull out an 8 point win.

WM-68
TU-60

This game is absolutely huge. If the Tribe pulls this out, a bye in the CAA tourny is pretty much a lock and they will have a 2.5 game lead on Wilmington. Since the Tribe beat them at the Hall, UNC-W has beaten JMU at the Trask and dropped a 1 point game at Delaware. Their RPI is 4th in the CAA at 163.

This game will be tough for the Tribe. Leading-scorer Laimis Kisielius is doubtful with turf toe. UNCW has lost all of 2 games at home this year, vs. UNCG and VCU. The Tribe will need to play a much better game than their 4-point win in Williamsburg to pull this game out, as UNCW has one of - if not the - best homecourts in the CAA. Now I just everything that is stacked against them, but since when does that matter? After going 2-6 in non-conference play, they are in 3rd place, and I’m predicting they shock everybody again tonight. Tribe by 3.

UNCW-62
WM-65