Daily Press

The Daily Press reported today that QB Mike Potts will start in place of Jake Phillips this weekend.

“At this point our offense has not been as consistent as it needed to be through the first four games,” Laycock said Friday during practice. “We knew coming into the season we had two outstanding options at quarterback in Jake Phillips and Mike Potts.”

“This week I’m going to give Mike Potts a chance as the starter.”

“The playoffs have already begun for us,” linebacker Chris Ndubueze said.

“No one has given up,” said tailback Elijah Brooks, a rare offensive bright spot the past two games with 7.5 yards per carry. “We realize that if we were just a little more consistent offensively in the two conference games, we’d be 3-1 and people would be talking about the season differently.

“But we can’t think about that now. Winning this game at Massachusetts is all we’re focused on.”

I think this is a good change. Potts has lit up the opposition in his only playing time, and Phillips has been below par. The glaring problem, though, is the offensive line and how much pressure can be put on Potts. The strong point of Phillips so far in the season is that he wouldn’t go down when defenders were in the offensive backfield, while Potts is much slower. If the offensive line can at least be decent, and they run a bunch of slants(which I heard yesterday along with a tip that Potts would start), we should be in good shape.

Go Tribe!

When UMass has the ball

UMass OL vs. W&M DL

The Tribe D-Line got zero pressure on the QB last week, but CJ Herbert and Adrian Tracy had good games. Wright stepping up this week would be huge. The UMass O-Line is stocked full with upperclassmen, and they’ve only given up 4 sacks in 4 games. This will be one of the key spots in the game next week, as the Tribe’s lack of pressure last week gave Hofstra all the time in the world to throw. If we can at least get some pressure on the QB, I’ll be happy.  

UMass running game vs. W&M LB’s

Steve Baylark has been extremely consistent, gaining 80-105 yards in every game this year. He, and Tim Washington(110 yards, 2 TD’s) will give the Tribe D trouble all day. The loss of Rutter should really hurt this week, but if Michael Pigram can play like last week(10 tackles), the loss will go unnoticed. The McLaurin bros. should be solid as always, and Trevor brings a bunch of speed to the LB’s. Chris Ndubueze should get increased playing time, and that’s always good in my book. This is probably the 2 teams strengths facing off(at least on that side of the ball).

UMass passing game vs. W&M DB’s

UMass averages 207 yards passing per game, which is not all that impressive as W&M is in that neighborhood also. Quarterback Liam Coen has completed 65 percent of passes this year, and has 7 TD’s compared to 3 INT’s. Wide Receiver Brandon London lit it up vs. Villanova, gaining over 100 yards, but has done very little in the other games. Rasheed Rancher is leading the teams in yards. He only had one catch last week, but it was a 89 yard TD pass. W&M’s pass defense has been pretty good this year, especially last week when they kept Hofstra’s passing game down even though Clarkson had all the time he wanted to throw. Cox, Wheeling, Allen, and Riley have really formed a strong core.

When W&M has the ball

W&M OL vs. UMass DL

W&M’s offensive line has been terrible this year. If Jake Philliips weren’t so mobile, the sack number would probably be doubled. This team only goes as far as the O-Line takes them, and that probably won’t be too far. UMass has 7 sacks on the year, but they are well spread(no lineman has more than 1). The line has 2 seniors, 1 junior, and a red-shirt freshman. Unless the Tribe O-Line steps up big time, UMass wins this matchup.

W&M running game vs. UMass LB’s

UMass has a stingy run defense, averaging 123 yards on the ground per game vs. some pretty tough competition. JR. LB Jason Hatchell is leading the team with 30 tackles on the year, and JR. Charles Walker is right behing with 27. The W&M running has been much better in the last 2 weeks. Elijah Brooks was spectacular vs. VMI, and solid(gaining over 100 yards) vs. Hofstra. Much more importantly, he showed a bunch of heart and made a spectacular run late in the game that should have put W&M in a position to win. DeBrian Holmes hasn’t gotten much play time this year but has been pretty good, and Delmus Coley, who I think will have a big impact on the rest of the season, is finally back.

W&M passing game vs. UMass DB’s

UMass only has 2 picks this year, and have been a little bit better than W&M at defending the pass. They are extremely veteran, with 3 seniors. The W&M passing game hasn’t been good this year, save a few big plays. Jake Phillips has had constant pressure on him which has caused a lot of his throws to be off line, but even when he has time hitting the receivers in stride has been an issue. He has completed only 50% of his passes, and has only 4 TD’s compared to 2 INT’s. Back-up QB Mike Potts, on the other hand, has completed 85% of his passes for 3 TD’s and almost 200 yards on only 12 attempts. Many Tribe fans think he deserves a shot. When it comes to the receivers, Joe Nicholas has been consistantly good every game, with a season total of 240 yards and 3 TD’s. Next up is DJ McAulay, who has gained 200 yards and a TD and is a good big-play threat. Receiver Elliot Mack is also a big play receiver, but last week he disappeared catching no passes. He only has 98 yards on the year but has 2 TD’s. RJ Archer, Elijah Brooks, and Matt Trinkle have also been solid contributors to the passing game.

Special Teams

JJ Moore must have broken a couple against Stony Brook when it comes to punt returning. 68 yards on 2 returns. Courtney Robinson has an impressive 203 yards on 7 kickoff returns, including 100 against Villanova. Chris Koepplin is only 5-8 on FG’s this year. The punter, Koegel, has pinned the opposing team inside the 20 on punts 4 times. Blair Pritchard is 2-3 on FG’s, but has little range. He is 11-11 on PAT’s. William and Mary’s returning has been below average. Derek Cox averages 8 yards per punt return, and DeBrian Holmes averages 17 yards per kickoff return.

Final Prediction

I really think W&M keeps this one close. Elijah runs for 100+ yards and Phillips makes some big plays in the passing game, but Steve Baylark busts some big runs late to give UMass a fairly comfortable win. 27-17.

Links

UMass stats

W&M stats

W&M game notes

Prediction thread

UMass blog

UMass message board

Ugh.

-You want to see Jake Phillips’ line? Really? Are you sure? Okay, since you asked: 9/22, 40 pct. completion, 189 yards, 2 TD’s(One a trick play, the other inside the 10), and a pick(almost two). He did a great job again of getting away from pressure, but when we needed him late he just wasn’t there. Mike Potts deserves a shot. Elijah was solid today, 15 rushes for 79 yards and a HUGE 30 yard catch that Phillips and the O-Line made really small. DeBrian only got 3 carries, but the bigger news is that Delmus Coley was back in uniform today. Joe Nicholas was the top receiver, 3 catches for 70 yards and a touchdown that he caught on a flea-flicker. Andrew Atchinson caught the other TD. DJ McAulay got over 50 yards receiving, and RJ Archer got a 19-yard catch. Elliot Mack did not get a catch. The O-Line play was just terrible, and Phillips always seemed to have a man he needed to get away from.

-The D was solid. Adrian Tracy got another sack, 2.5 on the year, and had 2 TFL. Michael Pigram had a team-high 10 tackles(along with Tracy). Besides Tracy, there was zero pressure on Clarkson, and we would have lost by much more if he wasn’t off-track on most of his passes early in the game.

-The CJ Herbert blocked kick was nice. Pritchard was solid, but the squib kick needs to go. On one kickoff the ball landed in the stands. Yes, it was aided by 10 yards, BUT IT LANDED IN THE STANDS. Let him kick the ball, Jimmye! Hofstra’s kicker, Rob Zarrilli, is for real.

-Injuries. I didn’t see any. Correct me if I’m wrong.

-My prediction. Not terrible. I was right that it would be a close game and that it could go either way, but was wrong in predicting W&M by 3 and that it would be a high scoring game. Oh well.

-Pictures will be up soon, I think I got some really good ones.

http://thetribehasspoken.net/images/football/game-photos/wm-vs-hofstra/

When Hofstra has the ball

Hofstra OL vs. W&M DL

Hofstra’s website doesn’t want to give me any sacks against statistics, so bear with me on this one. They are a veteren line with 3 seniors and 2 juniors. They seem like a formidable line, but they have given up more sack yards(40-31) and more TFL’s(12-8) than W&M’s O-Line, but that isn’t taking into account QB mobility which has saved the Tribe from lots of trouble this year. The Tribe D-Line has a star in the making in redshirt freshman Adrian Tracy, who leads the D-Line in sacks and got a sack and a half last week vs. VMI. Couple that with veteran Josh Wright, who has forced 2 fumbles and the year. The ends are not the point of concern on the line. The D-Line putting pressure on Hofstra will be KEY to the game this week. 

Hofstra running game vs. W&M LB’s

Hofstra flat out doesn’t run the football. Averaging 77 yards per game, and only having 80 rushing attempts on the season, it is clear that isn’t their focus. Junior Kareem Huggins has gotten the grunt of the carries on the year, running the ball 30 times(in 3 games) and gaining 174 yards. The Tribe linebackers took a HUGE hit with the loss of Sophomore LB Josh Rutter, who led the team in tackles as a frosh last year and was the top tackler after 2 games this year. Luckily this is the teams deepest defensive position, with Chris Ndubueze, Travis and Trevor McLaurin, and Michael Pigram still manning the LB position. The linebackers will be weaker than the first 3 games of the year, but it won’t become one of the weak spots. The Tribe has had trouble stopping the run, however, as they have given up 542 yards on the ground in 3 games.

Hofstra passing game vs. W&M DB’s

Passing the football is surely Hofstra’s offensive strength, as they average 240 passing yards per game(almost 100 more than W&M). Senior QB Anton Clarkson and star receiver Shaine Smith, who average 128 yards per game, the Hofstra passing game will be tough to stop. The Tribe has stopped the pass pretty well this year, giving up an average of 110 yards per game this year. Whether W&M can contain(not stop) the Hofstra passing game will be key to the final outcome.

When W&M has the ball

W&M OL vs. Hofstra DL

The Tribe offensive line has been one of the weak spots this year, as Jake Phillips is rushed seemingly every play either out of the pocket or to make a quick throw. The lack of effective play at the OL position pretty much shut down W&M’s running game until last week. If the Tribe OL can at least be average, I will be happy. Hofstra’s defensive line has only 4 sacks in their 3 games this year, and that seems to be one of the weak points on their team. Age isn’t an issure at this position(all upperclassmen), but effectiveness has and this match-up will be pivotal to the game this week.

W&M running game vs. Hofstra LB’s

The Tribe running game busted free last week, when Elijah Brooks rushed for 146 yards and 3 TD’s and DeBrian Holmes added 59 yards in only 5 attempts. The Tribe running game really depends on the offensive line. Last week Elijah got some holes and ran all over VMI, while the 2 weeks before he had no holes and it showed on the stat sheet. Save the Marshall game, Hofstra has been pretty good against the run this year. The Hofstra LB’s are, on average, 13 pounds lighter than W&M’s running backs, small compared to W&M’s LB’s who are about the same size as Hofstra’s running backs. Though they may not have size on their side, they do have experience as they seem to do at every position(all upperclassmen for the starters)

W&M passing game vs. Hofstra’s DB’s

The William and Mary passing game has been pretty bad all year. Starting QB Jake Phillips is averaging about 140 yards per game this season, and his completion percentage just over 50. He only has one pick, but that doesn’t look too good when you have 2 TD passes in 3 games. The Tribe receivers are solid, with sure-handed veteran Joe Nicholas, and the speedy duo of Elliot Mack and DJ McAulay. Hofstra got flat out lit up last week, as Towson threw for over 450 yards including a game winning touchdown with less than a minute left. This is neither teams strong point to say the least.

Special Teams

Derek Cox was strong on the punt returns last week, averaging over 10 yards a pop. When it comes to the kicking, even I am willing to admit Pritchard was good last week. Was perfect on FG’s and XP’s and when he didn’t do that stop squib kick it was a touchback. Hofstra is pretty solid when it comes to returning. The punting duty goes to Kareem Huggins, who averages almost 10 yards per return. He also takes the kickoff duties, but his longest return of 24 is sub-par. Kicker Rob Zarrilli is perfect in kicks on the year, 6-6 on XP and 5-5 on FG. His long is only 33, but that isn’t his fault. He also handles the kickoff duties.

Final prediction

This is one of those games that is literally a toss-up. Both have one conference loss, both 1-2, with the other loss to a I-A team and the win vs. a extremely weak team. The game could go either way. I am picking William and Mary narrowly, based on home-field only. It is really that close. One thing is for sure, Jimmye will have the team ready.

W&M-31, Hofstra-28

Links

W&M game notes

W&M stats

Hofstra stats

Prediction thread

Hofstra fan site

W&M game day

Here is what I saw:

-Everything was on. Elijah and DeBrian had it going, Jake wouldn’t go down and made some great passes, Archer, Mack, Trinkle, and Nicholas were all solid, and the D was dominating.

-The O:Phillips line was sub-par against a terrible VMI pass defense. 10/17, 111 yards and a pick. His mobility really help the entire game, though. Mike Potts came in, threw 4 passes, got 2 TD’s, and threw for 99 yards. We may have a QB controversy. The running backs. Elijah flat out went off. 15 carries, 146 yards, 3 TD’s. That’s 3 more TD’s and about 50 more yards than he had all season in about half the carries. Major props to Elijah for breaking through.The receivers. Joe Nicholas was the stand-out, gaining 78 yards on 3 catches and a TD on a long 54-yard pass from Mike Potts. Next in line was Elliot Mack,  3 catches for 54 yards and a TD. Trinkle also had a solid game, gaining 26 yards on only 2 catches.  Also would like to add that DeBrian Holmes ran for 59 yards.

-The D:Dominating game tonight for the defense. The line was putting pressure on Kyle Hughes all game and got 2 sacks. One and a half goes to Adrian “A-Train” Tracy, and the change going to Josh Wright. Tracy was a monster, he also got 2.5 TFL and forced a fumble. Trevor McLaurin started again, and got a pick. I complimented him on the pick after the game and he replied:”Yeah, it was nice, but I should have taken it to the crib”. Gotta love it. Spectacular game for the D.

-Special teams:Breaking news-Blair Pritchard wasn’t horrible! While he may not have been as good as the student who kicked at half-time(made three FG’s, one of 47 yards), he made some great kickoffs, almost out of the endzone and was perfect in his one field goal and several extra points. Derek Cox also looked good as a returner.

-Injuries. Matt Otey went down, and sadly Josh Rutter. Josh walked out right before the end of the first half, and came back in a leg brace.

-And for the VMI people:Sean Mizzer looked pretty good, running for over 100 yards. It was nice to see QB Kyle Hughes get some time, as the true Frosh played at Lafayette High School last year.

-My prediction:42-6. Not too bad! I’m 2/3 on the year now.

-6 game losing streak snapped, 21 game streak vs. VMI still in-tact.

-Redshirt alert! on the football page will be updated soon and I’ll have a bunch of images uploaded tomorrow(hopefully).

When VMI has the ball

VMI OL vs. W&M DL

After losing 2 starters(Matt Dowler, Jeremy Ward), VMI has an extremely young offensive line. 2 Sophomores, 1 Junior, 2 Freshman. The Tribe(past Josh Wright) has had issues putting pressure on and wrapping up QB’s this year(especially last week), but expect them to have a huge week. This match-up definitely goes in the favor of the Tribe. 

VMI running game vs. W&M LB’s

Before running into the defensive buzz-saw known as University of Richmond, where he ran the ball 12 times for 34 yards, RB Sean Mizzer was lighting up opposing D’s. Against Norfolk State he ran the ball only 14 times but gained 109 yards and ripped off 173 yards and 2 TD’s in 22 carries vs. Davidson. This is the third week in a row where the Tribe will face an exceptional running back. Luckily for the Tribe, Mizzer will be facing their defensive strong point. Josh Rutter leads the linebackers, and similar to last year he is leading the team in tackles. He is followed by Michael Pigram, 4th on the team in tackles, Trevor McLaurin, a RB convert who has flew up the depth chart and earned himself a starting position, and Travis McLaurin and Chris Ndubueze, both solid players with lots of experience who missed last season due to injury. Like the last 2 weeks, this match-up will be key to the game.

VMI passing game vs. W&M DB’s

Jonathon Wilson returns as the Keydet’s starting QB after throwing for a 62% completion percentage last year. This year, however, he has been less than average(and that is putting it nicely). Last week vs. Richmond he was 1/8 for -1 yard(s) and a 12.5 completion percentage. Ouch. Over the season he has passed for a 38.5% completion percentage and gained 302 yards and 3 TD’s in 3 games. The Tribe DB’s should have no problem locking down the VMI passing game. Richard Riley(INT vs. Maine), Kevin Allen(2nd on team in tackles), and Derek Cox(2 fumble recoveries) have been great for the Tribe defensive backfield this year, and Alan Wheeling has provided a veteran presence for the young DB group. Again, the Tribe should dominate this match-up.

When W&M has the ball

W&M OL vs. VMI DL

The Tribe offensive line has been the weak point of the team this season. Though they have only given up 4 sacks, Tribe QB Jake Phillips has been under pressure constantly and been forced to leave the pocket and make off balance throws all year. Luckily, VMI’s D-Line hasn’t been much better. In 3 games, 2 vs. week opponents, VMI has only gotten 3 sacks and 2 were by the same player. It will be interesting to see which unit steps up next weekend.

W&M running game vs. VMI LB’s

William and Mary’s running game this year has been flat out awful. Starting running back Elijah Brooks has run for only 91 yards in 29 carries and no TD’s. Though in a smaller sample size, DeBrian Holmes has 1 touchdown and 35 yards in 7 carries. It would be a good idea to give him some more runs next week. VMI’s defense, 4-4, is geared to stop the run and has a good blend of experience and youth(one player in each class). The top 3 tacklers on the team are all linebackers, and if Elijah and the OL doesn’t step up VMI could win this match-up.

W&M passing game vs. VMI DB’s

Opponent’s have passed for at a 64% completion rate, and that may be just the thing Jake Phillips needs to gain some confidence. Phillips was below average last week vs. Maine, but has a solid group of receivers around him in SR TE Matt Trinkle and WR’s Joe Nicholas, Elliot Mack, and DJ McAulay. Couple that with the fact that VMI runs a 4-4 defense, and this could be a huge week for Jake.

Special Teams

Special teams has been a big problem for W&M this year. A missed field goal, fumbled punt snap, and blocked punt. VMI’s kicker, Barrett Way, was 11-13 in field goals last year and holds the Big South record for longest made field goals(51, 53). The edge on paper is in favor of VMI.

Final Prediction

VMI continues it struggles throwing the ball, W&M puts 8 in the box, and the Keydet’s struggle to score offensively. The Tribe finally wake up from their offensive slump and put up 35+. The special teams edge will be the only thing going VMI’s way.

Final score:W&M 42, VMI 6

Resources/links

VMI game notes(not yet released)

W&M game notes

VMI stats

W&M stats

VMI media guide

W&M media guide

I usually use this blog to point out positives for Tribe football games(see last week), but I really don’t think I can do that tonight. Crowd was great. I’m finished. If you saw any, feel free to comment.

When Maine has the ball

Maine OL vs. Tribe DL

Last week both units struggled in the sack department, Maine giving up 4 and W&M getting 0. The Tribe did get 6 TFL, but only 2 came from the D-Line. The stats look bad, but Josh Wright’s 2 recovered 2 fumbles and is primed for a big game(and season) vs. the young black bears O-Line. Expect the D-Line to shine Saturday night.

Maine running game vs. Tribe LB’s

Maine RB, Arel Gordon, is one of Maine’s big play threats. Last week vs. top 10 team Youngstown State he busted a 75-yd. TD run and ended the day with 145 yards and an average of 9.3 yards per carry. Gordon will be facing off against the Josh Rutter and co., the Tribe’s defensive strong point. Rutter racked up 7 tackles to start his Sophomore season and has a good shot at leading the team in tackles this year. This will be one of the key match-up’s of the game.

Maine passing game vs. Tribe DB’s

Maine QB Ron Whitcomb had a less than spectacular game vs. Youngstown(which probably had a lot to do with it), going 11-17 for 114 yards, a TD, and a pick. Maine is starting Freshman at both WR spots, and that is probably why no WR caught more than 2 passes or gained more than 20 yards last week. Half of the yards were to(guess who?) RB Arel Gordon, with 4 catches and 63 yards. The Tribe DB’s were solid vs. UMD, holding them to 153, no TD’s, and getting a pick. The defensive backs got smoked a few times deep, but were solid otherwise. Injury and depth have been an issue at this position, but the bye week should have everyone healthy for Saturday night. I give the advantage to W&M in this match-up.

When W&M has the ball

W&M OL vs. Maine DL

Constant pressure was on Jake Phillips(which was expected), but UMD only picked up 2 sacks and 4 TFL in College Park 2 weeks ago(suprisingly low number’s for a young offensive line). Maine’s D-Line only got 1 sack vs. Youngstown(though they got 6 tackles for loss). Experience may be a factor in this match-up, as 7 or Maine’s top 8 lineman are upper classmen and the Tribe only has 1 senior in the 2-deep.

Running game vs. Maine’s LB’s

Elijah had a less than stellar performance for his homecoming at Byrd Stadium(he’s an MD native). 17 rushes for 62 yards and 4 catches for 29 yards. I wouldn’t be suprised if he ran wild for this game. Back-up DeBrian Holmes got little playing time, getting 3 rushes for 10 yards. Both had disappointing games, and hopefully that was mainly because of MD’s skill level. Maine has a young corp of linebackers, headlined by Jovan Belcher who got 9 tackles last week. I think W&M dominates this match-up.

W&M passing game vs. Maine DB’s

Jake Phillips had a good game vs. MD, going for 127 and a TD vs. the starters. Mike Potts went 9/10 for 99 yards and a TD, but the numbers are inflated due to the competition(second string). DJ McAulay was easily the best receiver, getting 5 catches, 82 yards, and a TD. Nicholas and Mack also had solid games, and are really forming a potent unit. Maine’s DB’s were also impressive last week, picking off the Youngstown QB twice. This will be a fun match-up.

Special Teams

I can sum up the Tribe’s ST positives in 2 words: DeBrian Holmes. And his 90 returning yards on 4 returns. The kicking game was sub-par, highlighted(or lowlighted?) by a blocked Blair Pritchard punt. Maine got a blocked kick last week, but it was the only real positive as the returning was bad and kicking only solid(PK 2-2 on PAT). Either Pritchard or Miller stepping up is key to our success.

Final prediction

Both teams score a bunch early, I’m thinking along the lines of 24-21 at the half. In the second half the Tribe D steps up and shuts down Maine. W&M wins, 38-24.

Links and resources

Maine’s weekly game notes

W&M’s weekly game notes

Tribe stats

Maine stats

W&M recap from last game

Maine recap from last game

Tribe athletics gameday

I only got a chance to listen to about half the game, but here is what I saw.

-Seemed like the game was a tale of 2 halves. UMD dominated the first half, leading 24-7 at halftime, and W&M the second, 7-3 W&M in the second half. Hopefully we can carry that momentum into the Maine game in 2 weeks(Zable will be rockin’).

-Kevin Allen played, and was pretty effective. Derek Cox was spectacular and also recovered a fumble early. Trevor McLaurin got a lot of PT too.

-McAulay and Mack both got TD catches, one from Pott’s one from Phillips. McAulay’s catch was a 49-yard TD. Potts outplayed Phillips tonight, going 9-10 compared to 16-31.

-Pritchard was 2 for 2 in XP’s, and had some solid punts. He also had one blocked and some bad kicks(we punted A LOT). Where was Miller?

-Derek Cox also had some solid kick returns tonight, and in my opinion was the player of the game.

-My prediction was pretty good, 4 points off! I said 28-17, 27-14 is the final. All in all, a great game for the Tribe and hopefully is a sign of things to come for the rest of the season. Go Tribe!

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Go Tribe! Beat the Terps!