Overview

William and Mary is playing some of it’s best ball of the season, after sticking with JMU, a norrow loss to Villanova, and a huge upset win besting the Towson Tigers. The Blue Hens of Delaware, however, are not, coming off back-to-back losses against Towson and JMU.

When W&M has the ball

W&M OL vs. UD DL

The Tribe has a young o-line, led by senior all-american Cody Morris. They, too, have really come on and helped dominate the trenches against Towson. The Tribe ran all over Towson and gave up zero sacks, mainly due to the OL. This was the team’s biggest weakness coming into the year, but it is turning out to be a solid unit. The UDel defensive line has 2 seniors, a junior, and a sophomore. They only got 1 sack vs. JMU, and only have 12 on the year(8 are coming 2 games). End Jeremy Kametz has one of those, the other end Bubba Jesperen has 2, and the 2 tackles combine for 1.5. This will be another important match-up.

W&M running game vs. UD LB’s

W&M senior running back Elijah Brooks has also been very strong in his past couple games. In the last 4 weeks he has gone for 101, 99, 142, and 165. Also, back-up DeBrian Holmes has been more effective and putting former RB Delmus Coley at FB could help the running game also. The Tribe averages 134 yards per game on the ground. At linebacker UD has 2 sophomores and senior. The senior, Keiandre Hepburn, leads the team in tackles with 85 and also in tackles for loss with 6. The middle linebacker, Erik Johnson, is second on the team in tackles with 54, has 5 tackles for a loss, 2.5 sacks, and an INT. He looks to be a player. The 3rd and final linebacker is sophomore Brian Brown. Brown has 21 tackles, 2 tackles for a loss, and a sack on the year and has started 7 of the 9 games. UD gives up an average of over 200 yards per game on the ground, so don’t be shocked if Elijah Brooks and co. run all over the Blue Hens.

W&M passing game vs. UD DB’s

The Tribe passing game has greatly increased since Jake Phillips was replaced in the starting lineup Mike Potts. Last week Potts had the second best passing game in W&M history, going for 409 yards, 2 TD’s and an INT that was a tipped pass. Part of that is consistent junior WR Joe Nicholas. Nicholas leads the team in receiving yards and went for 104 and 2 TD’s last week. Behind him is freshman QB convert RJ Archer, who seems to do something spectacular every week. Last week the big-play threat caught 6 passes for 122 yards. DJ McAulay is another strong receiver, who made a big-time 45 yard TD catch last week diving out of bounds. Elliot Mack has come back after being nearly invisible during the middle of the season, and is becoming a threat on reverses. The 2 running backs, Brooks and Holmes, are also solid and the 2 TE’s, Trinkle and Atchison, have really come on in the past few weeks. UD is young at CB, with a freshman in Ken Hale and a sophomore Fred Andrew. Andrew has an interception on the year is in the top 5 tacklers on the team. Hale has only started one game this season. The safties are consist of seniors Kyle Campbell and Garrett Schultz. Schultz is third on the team in tackles and has 2 picks. Campbell is forth on the team in tackles and also has 2 interceptions. UD gives up over 200 yards on average through the air.

When UD has the ball

UD OL vs. W&M DL

Delaware’s line hasn’t been up to par this year. They have given up 22 sacks, 10 more than their DL has gotten, and only averages a little over 100 yards per rushing per game. Last week they only rushed for 20 yards and were sacked 4 times. The Tribe’s DL played one of it’s best games last week, headed up by redshirt freshman Adrian Tracy. The Tribe sacked Towson 5 times, 3 by Tracy, and were in the backfield pretty much all day. Tracy leads the team in sacks(6), tackles for loss(15), and is second in tackles(59). He and Josh Wright provide a good young-old combo on the edges. This match-up will be key to the outcome of the game saturday.

UD running game vs. W&M LB’s

UD’s running game hinges on which RB starts: freshman Jared Bradley, or junior all-everything Omar Cuff. Bradley started last week vs. JMU and was ineffective. Cuff has missed his last 2 games and is questionable for this weeks game. He hasn’t had a good game since the 4th week of the year. UD averages just over 100 yards per game on the ground. The Tribe looks to start 2 seniors, Travis McLaurin and Chris Ndubueze, and a sophomore, Michael Pigram, this weekend. McLaurin is #6 on the team in tackles, has an INT on the year, and is a Delaware native. Ndubueze has become the top tackler with 65, has 3 sacks in the last 4 games, and 5 TFL on the year. He is really becoming a defensive leader and is fun to watch. Pigram has gotten some huge hits on the year and will make a nasty combo for the years to come with Josh Rutter. He is third on the team in tackles with 58 and has 3.5 TFL. Whether Bradley or Cuff starts, and if they are on their game, decides this match-up.

UD passing game vs. W&M DB’s

This is UD’s best spot. Pittsburgh transfer Joe Flacco has thrown for over 290 yards in each of his last 3 games, a TD in each of his last 6, and 14 total TD’s on the year. He is a big guy, and has a strong arm. Flacco gets sacked a lot, but that is probably due to his offensive line. UD starts 3 young receivers, the first being Aaron Love. Love is a sophomore that has gained over 100 yards in each of his last 3 games, and is the teams leading receiver. Second is sophomore Kervin Michaud, who is third on the team in receiving. He has caught multiple passes in every game but one this year. UD’s third and final wide receiver is tall freshman Ryan Finnegan, who has only started 2 games but looks to have a bright future. TE Ben Patick is a huge target. The senior is 6-4, 270. Patrick has caught more than 5 passes in each of his last 7 games and is second on the team in receiving. The Hens average almost 240 ypg through the air. W&M’s defensive backfield consists on 2 sophomores and 2 seniors. The seniors are Alan Wheeling, who did not play last weekend due to an injury. Wheeling got a huge INT and 33 yard return vs. Liberty. The other senior is Richard Riley, who also has an interception, and 3 tackles for a loss. Derek Cox and Kevin Allen are the future of the secondary, and have both been solid contributors. Even though the Tribe secondary has talent, expect the Hens to chew them up and spit them out.

ST

Delaware kicker Zach Hobby has made 8 of 11 field goals on the year with a long of 45. The punter, Stuart Kenworthy, averages 37.2 yards per punt. Aaron Love averages 13.8 yard per return on punts, and Rashaad Woodard averages 27.3 yards per kickoff return. Derek Cox is W&M’s punt returner and has been solid at best on the year, yet to break one. David Caldwell has taken over the kick-return duties well, gaining over 50 ypg in each he has played. W&M’s Blair Pritchard kicks and punts, and he has made 7-10 field goals with a long of 34. His punting has been very good, and he averages 36.2 per punt and has pinned the ball inside the 20 7 times.

Final Prediction

Let me start by saying this will not be the knd of game where the team to have the ball last wins. W&M’s offense isn’t that good, and their defense isn’t that bad. The game will be high-scoring, and I think Cuff’s status will be huge. Either way, I am picking the Tribe to keep it’s momentum in a narrow win.

W&M-42

UD-35

Links

UD stats

W&M stats

UD game notes

W&M game notes

Finally, for the first time on this blog, I can tell you the Tribe won an A-10 game. We knocked off #21 Towson, and I’ll give a quick recap of the last drive.

Towson had the ball at our 24 on 3rd and 4. They got called for false start and then gained that back on a pass, making it 4th and 4. They jumped again, making it 4th and 9. Schaefer tried to pass it into the endzone, but it was incomplete. We got the ball around the Towson 30. A bunch of short passes picked up 5-10 yards and eventually we got into Towson territory. Then Mike Potts passed it to Elliot Mack, eventually getting to the Towson 23. Then Potts passed for a gain of 2 out of bounds to Elijah Brooks. Ball on the 21, and Potts gained 4 on a pass to Joe Nicholas out of bounds at the Towson 17. The 3rd down pass was thrown away, and it was Blair Pritchard’s time to shine. After 3 Towson timeouts, Pritchard split the uprights and the Tribe won, 29-28.

What an exciting game, and that excitement is shown in W&M’s 3 TD’s. First was on a fake reverse, followed by Potts dropping back and completing a 76 yard touchdown pass to Joe Nicholas. The second, on the Towson 6, where Potts tossed back to Elijah Brooks who hit a wide-open Joe Nicholas in the endzone. They 3rd and final touchdown was a 45 yard pass to a diving DJ McAulay, barely staying in bounds. Great playcalling today by Coach Laycock.

Like most games involving Towson, their was a bunch of passing. Schaefer of Towson passed for 367 yards and 4 TD’s, completing 33 of 51. Only interception was when he got hit hard. He is going to be special.

But on to the William and Mary passing game. Mike Potts showed why he is our best QB today. He completed 28 of 44, passing for 2 touchdowns and throwing for an amazing 409 yards. Congrats to Mr. Potts. Both RJ Archer and Joe Nicholas gained over 100 yards receiving, Archer for 122(career-high) on 6 passes and Nicholas for 104 on 6 and 2 of them touchdowns. DJ McAulay also gained 51 on 2 catches, one of them a touchdown. The biggest this was how everybody pitched in. 8 players got multiple receptions.

Elijah had a spectacular day also. He ran the ball 22 times gaining 165 yards on the ground and 33 through the air with 5 catches. According to Towson’s website that was his career-high. He also passed for 6 yards and a touchdown. DeBrian Holmes also rushed for 39 and got 29 through the air.

The defense wasn’t spectacular today, but they made the big plays late and got some big-time turnovers. Chris Ndubueze had 13 tackles, 2 for a loss and a sack. The biggest standout, though, is freshman star Adrian Tracy. He got 4 tackles for a loss, 9 total tackles, 3 sacks, and forced a fumble. Isn’t it great to watch a player become a star?

Enjoy the A-10 win, Tribe fans. It’s been a while.

Overview

Two teams headed in two completely different directions. W&M hasn’t won an A-10 game since the middle of last year, coming off a loss vs. Villanova. Towson, on the other hand, Just hung 49 on Delaware in Delaware, who coming into that game was playing spectacular football. This one could get ugly. Fast.

When Towson has the Ball

Towson OL vs. W&M DL

Towson’s OL hasn’t been great this year, and that’s putting it nicely. They have given up 7 more sacks than a bad W&M O-Line, and sit at 23 on the year. The line is mixed up nicely with a senior, 2 juniors, a freshman and a sophomore. The Tribe D-Line is highlighted by the ends, freshman Adrian Tracy and senior Josh Wright. Tracy is third on the team in tackles, 5th in the A-10 in tackles for loss(11), and 3 sacks. Wright, a captain, is around the middle of the pack in tackles, leads the team with 4 sacks, and has 6.5 tackles for loss. Wright is flat-out fun to watch. Another key lineman is CJ Herbert, who has blocked several field goals this year. Pressure will be huge for the Tribe. Schaefer will eat them up otherwise.

Towson Running Game vs. W&M LB’s

Not Towson’s thing. The leading rusher, junior Nick Williams, only has 55 ypg, and is followed by RaSheed McClaud, with 27, and Matt Castor with 21. They only average 90 yards per game on the ground, and the Tribe has improved it’s run stopping in the last 2 weeks. This week we will be without Trevor McLaurin and Josh Rutter, who I’m not sure will play again this year. Luckily, we came into the season deep here, and that start with Michael Pigram, who was a player last week. Not only did he completely crush a Villanova player, he is 4th on the team in tackles, got a TFL(3.5 on the year), and forced 2, count ‘em, 2 fumbles. Now we move to senior Travis McLaurin, a captain last year, has gotten a half a TFL each of the last 2 weeks, a pick vs. JMU, and 42 tackles on the year. The 3rd LB is senior Chris Ndubueze. Chris has 2 sacks and 3 TFL and is another one of my favorite players to watch. If the Tribe run D plays more like it did against JMU rather than Liberty or UMass, we should be fine in this section.

Towson Passing Game vs. W&M DB’s

And this is where we lose the game. Towson SOPHOMORE quarterback Sean Schaefer is a star already, and the numbers speak for themselves. 316 yards per game, 4 INTs and 14 TD’s, over 2200 yards, and completely lit up Delaware last weekend. Senior WR Eric Yancey has caught 8 of those TD’s and pulled in 52 catches for 642 yards. He has 3 other receivers averaging over(or around) 50 ypg, in Harrison, Lee, and Brown. When it comes to stopping Towson’s passing, I’m not holding my breathe. Why? Schaefer will be going up against a team that gave up almost 300 yards through the air to Villanova, and just looked lost last week. I thought the DB’s would be much better with a combo of Allen, Riley, Cox, and Wheeling, but they just haven’t produced consistently. The DB’s only have 3 picks on the year, and I fully expect them to get chewed up on Saturday.

When W&M has the ball

W&M OL vs. Towson DL

Finally. The Tribe O-Line played well last week, giving Potts some time to get the ball out and giving Elijah Brooks all kinds of holes. They have given up 16 sacks on the year, but the O-Line has played much better when Potts is in. Coincidence? The Towson D-Line, all upperclassmen, have gotten few sacks this year. End John Webb has gotten a couple with 2.5. Both tackles, Carlos Allen and George Mitchell, have gotten sacks on the year also, but nothing from either of Towson’s lines seem to blow you away. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Tribe dominated the trenches Saturday.

W&M Running Game vs. Towson LB’s

As I already stated, Elijah Brooks got some holes last week and ran for 142 and 2 TD’s. He has really come on lately and has some all kinds of passion. Elijah has gone for over 100 3 times and hit 99 once. I am going to predict Elijah goes over 100 again Saturday. DeBrian Holmes has been getting more playing time recently, and Elliot Mack has become a big-time threat on reverse plays in the last few weeks. Towson starts 4 LB’s, headed by senior Marcus Edwards who has 3 sacks and 9 tackles for loss. He starts with fellow senior Tony Lumpkin, who has 4 TFL on the year, junior Maurice Wilkins, who has broken up 4 passes this season, and sophomore Jordan Manning, who leads the team in tackles, has 7 tackles for loss, and an interception.

W&M Passing Game vs. Towson DB’s

The Tribe passing game is much better with Mike Potts in, but I wouldn’t be suprised if we see Phillips this weekend. Potts has been much better passing this year, but some of Jimmye’s decisions so far have me thinking JP is the new QB. Anyway, the receivers have been solid all year. Led by junior Joe Nicholas, who has put up solid numbers just about every week, he has really been a constant when the QB’s haven’t. RJ Archer’s numbers aren’t spectacular, but every week the converted QB makes a great play of some sort to help out the team. DJ McAulay has missed the last 3 weeks, but has been pretty good on the year and should play this weekend. Matt Trinkle and Drew Atchison have been nothing short of fantastic in the past couple games, chewing up the opposing D’s. Towson only plays 3 DB’s, 2 juniors and a senior. Backup free-safety Drew Mack has 2 picks, and left cornerback Adjete Wilson also has one. They average a little over 172, yards per game, but we little shot of exploiting them if Phillips is starting.

Special Teams

Derek Cox has been okay returning, and I think he breaks one before the end of the season. David Caldwell has been pretty good taking back kickoffs after taking DeBrian Holmes duties. Blair Pritchard has really come on lately at kicker, making most of his kicks no matter the outside factors(save JMU). Eric Yancey and Jimmy McClam take back kicks for Towson and don’t seem to be much better than the Tribes return men. Towson’s kicker, Chris Desautels, has only made 4 of 8 kicks this year and has missed a PAT. Luckily for Towson, it probably won’t matter.

Final Prediction

Towson rolls, but here are my 3 predicted scores.

If Phillips starts:42-7

If Phillips and Potts play:42-14

If Potts starts:42-21

Links

Towson stats

W&M stats

W&M notes

Towson roster

W&M roster

Towson message board

W&M message board

This one 35-31 to Villanova, yes, Villanova.

RJ Archer is amazing.

Potts solid.

Elijah Great. 142, 2 TD’s.

Defense terrible. Remember, they aren’t allowed to play well twice?

I hate life.

Players of the game:

Offense

Elijah Brooks

Elijah diving in to the endzone…click here for a bigger shot.

Defense

N/A

Special Teams

Blair Pritchard

Field goal that took the lead…

Images

Overview

The Tribe enters this game playing much better than the start of the year. With a fairly close loss to Madison and a close win vs. Liberty, the Tribe may have the slightest bit of confidence. ‘Nova has 2 wins on the year, close ones vs. Penn and Hofstra, but lost it’s homecoming by a TD to Towson and lost by 13 the week prior to Maine. This is definitely the Tribes best chance to get an A-10 win in their final season in the league.

When VU has the ball

VU OL vs. W&M DL

The wildcats mix youth and experience on their offensive line with 3 seniors, a sophomore and a freshman. In 6 games, the VU offensive line has given up 17 sacks and VU only averages a little over 110 yards per game on the ground. The Tribe also mixes young and old with 2 seniors and 2 freshman. Senior end Josh Wright got a sack last week, and also picked up 5 tackles. The other end, freshman Adrian Tracy, only got 4 tackles and no sacks, but evened it out with 2.5 tackles for loss to give him a team-leading 9.5. Tackle Brian Williamson got a half of a TFL and 2 tackles, and while freshman CJ Herbert only got 1 tackle, he has blocked several kicks this year.

VU running game vs. W&M LB’s

No running backs on VU really blow you away, with starter Matt Dicken only averaging 23 yards per game, but fullback DeQuese May(47 ypg) and RB Aaron Jones(18 ypg) turn into a solid combo. QB Marvin Burroughs is also a threat to run, and averages 20 yards per game. The 114 yards per game doesn’t blow you away, but there looks to be several guys who can get it done. The Tribe has given up over 100 yards on the ground every game, and over 150 each game except one. Vs. JMU the Tribe did a solid job stopping Eugene Holloman, but he still got his big runs. Senior Chris Ndubueze got 10 tackles vs. JMU and a tackle for loss. Sophomore Michael Pigram got 6 tackles vs. JMU, and Travis McLaurin got 9 tackles and an interception. Senior Linebacker Travis McLaurin has really fallen off the map since UMass.

VU passing game vs. W&M DB’s

Villanova has been solid passing the ball this year. They average just under 200 yards per game through the air behind QB Marvin Burroughs. He needs to work on protecting the ball, with 6 TD’s and as many interceptions, but other than that looks to be solid and is also a threat to run. FB DeQuese May is also a top receiver, averaging just under 47 yards per game, and he is joined by WR Chris Polite who averages 48 per. Anton Ridley also averages 41 yards per game. The Tribe pass D has been up and down on the year, and was down last week. Whenever Rascati needed one he found a receiver and a few players broke it open. The defensive backfield is talented with Richard Riley, Kevin Allen, Alan Wheeling, and Derek Cox, but they haven’t been consistent enough. This week will be telling about the passing D.

When W&M has the ball

W&M OL vs. VU DL

The run-blocking was solid yet again, as Elijah was 1 yard away from the century mark. The pass-blocking gave up 6 sacks, all when Jake Phillips was in. I am not sure whether that is a coincidence or not, but I’m starting to think it’s not. Phillips seemed to abort the pass whenever a defender got past the line, while Potts just passed it quicker. Villanova only starts 3 players on the DL, running a 3-3-5(according to VU’s website, which is looking shakey). Their only end is sophomore Greg Miller, who only has 26 tackles but balances it out with 3.5 sacks and 5 TFL. At DT they have Peter Caroppolo, a sophomore who only has 7 tackles in(I assume) limited time, and David Dalessandro, a sophomore with 30 tackles, 4.5 TFL, and 2.5 sacks.

W&M running game vs. VU LB’s

Elijah Brooks has put together 2 solid weeks on the ground, gaining 200 yards and 3 TD’s total vs. Liberty and JMU. If he can continue this hot streak the Tribe is looking very good. DeBrian Holmes is also a back that can break one any second, and Elliot Mack is becoming a great threat for reverses. Nova gives up a respectable 122 ypg on the ground, and is led by sophomore Mike Holland who has 5 tackles for a loss and 2 sacks. He is joined by JC Cooper and Darrel Young. Cooper, a senior, has 34 tackles, a half a sack, and a half of a tackle for loss. Young, a sophomore, has 32 tackles, 4.5 TFL, and a sack.

W&M passing game vs. VU DB’s

Villanova has had trouble stopping the pass this year, giving up almost 250 yards per game. They only have 2 INT’s, by senior Rodney Badger and senior Allyn Bacchus. The Tribe needs to exploit Nova(and their 5 DB’s) through the air, and the only way to do that is play Mike Potts start to finish. Potts is averages a little over 140 ypg through the air in limited play time(half the snaps each game). He has also only been sacked twice this year, compared to Phillips’ 13 times. There is something seriously wrong with Laycock if Phillips gets as many snaps as Potts, much less start. But I digress. The status of receivers DJ McAulay and Joe Nicholas is unknown for this weekend, but I’d be willing to bet they both play. RJ Archer didn’t play as well last week, but Elliot Mack stepped in nicely with 48 yards receiving and 20 rushing. The tight ends were(and will be) huge, as Matt Trinkle got 4 catches for 57 yards and Andrew Atchison 2 for 27. RB Elijah Brooks can also be counted on to gain 10-20 yards through the air per game. If the Tribe doesn’t dominate this match-up, they are in trouble.

Special Teams

David Caldwell and Derek Cox were both impressive returning the ball last week vs. JMU. Blair Pritchard, however, was not. He missed one kick he should have made, one he shouldn’t, and made one short one. For ‘Nova, last week Tony Canci returned a punt for 40 yards and Salim Koroma returned 3 kicks for 73 yards. Kicker Joe Marcoux is a terrible 2/6 on the year on kicks, but the long is 42. He has the leg. He is 10/11 on PATs.

Final Prediction

Villanova keeps it close behind some big plays by QB Marvin Burroughs, but the Tribe pulls away late to a 10 point win. Homecoming fuels the Tribe to play very well. 24-14 Tribe.

Links

W&M stats

VU stats

W&M schedule

VU schedule

W&M game notes

VU game notes

W&M message board

VU message board 

“Closer than the experts think”

-Lee Corso

Anyway, here is how my day went.

12:02-We start the trip to Harrisonburg, exciting the University Center. Magnets on, flags flapping, and college football on the XM.

2:33-And we are in H’Burg, 30 minutes ahead of schedule. Time to remove the flags and magnets so the car doesn’t get keyed.

2:45ish-Had “W&M SUCKS” shouted at me several times on the way into the stadium, but it was no big deal. While waiting at an intersection a car runs through a red light and a policeman shouts “I bet she went to JMU”.

3:05ish-In the stadium just in time for the kick. Tribe wins the toss and chooses to receive.

6:30 left in 1st quarter:JMU touchdown, fans say “James Madison” 30 times to the tune of their fight song.

End of first quarter:Tribe is driving.

11:34 left in the 2nd quarter:Touchdown William and Mary, Touchdown Green and Gold. Elijah Brooks from 2 yards out.

Halftime:JMU scores 10 more to make it 17-7 at the half. Can’t wait for the performance of 70% of JMU’s student body, er, the Marching Royal Dukes!

End of the third:Madison gets a TD to make the score 24-7. The Tribe has the ball on the 12 and Blair Pritchard is setting up for a field goal.

2:23 left in the game:Touchdown William and Mary, Touchdown Green and Gold. Potts to John Taylor from 5 yards out. 31-17.

6:47-Back in the car, and made it out of the stadium nicely save a “student” telling me to “bring it” with 2 of his favorite fingers up.  The game was pretty much what I expected. JMU got pressure on the QB all game which caused Potts to get rid of the ball quickly and Phillips to scramble a little, abort the pass, and get sacked. Incredible. Phillips sacked 6 times, Potts zero. Jakes mobility may even be hurting him. Both TD’s were with Potts in, and if I remember correctly all the points. While Phillips had a couple good passes, 2 of 7 and 27 yards just isn’t going to cut it. He is becoming a run-first QB and that allows the opposing D to know what is coming. When Potts was in Elijah ran better and the passing game was on. Part of me is saying this game would have gone to OT(or at least been much closer) had Potts played all game. Solid games from Elijah(99 yards and a TD running, 25 receiving), Matt Trinkle(team-high 57 yards), John Taylor(35 yards, TD), and Elliot Mack who jumped back onto the scene(48 yards and 20 running).

Nice game from the D-Line and linebackers, who contained Holloman. He is a great back and will get his yards, but the D did a good job minimizing them. Congrats to Travis McLaurin with the interception.

The pass D had some trouble today. Whenever Rascati stepped back to pass he had a man, and it was an exclamation point when he connected with Bransford who broke free for an easy TD late.

All in all, we have really played much better in the last 2 games and I like our chances going down the strech.

9:41-Finally back home and writing in my blog;)

By the way, check out my prediction

Overview

The big question for this game is which Madison team will show up. The first 2 games of the year were tough, barely beating DII Bloomsburg(yes, they are a top DII team, but they were without far and away their best player) and losing by 11 to then #1 APP State. The rebounded well for the next 2 games, though, crushing Northeastern and VMI, but those games were followed by a narrow victory over Rhode Island. Last week they really showed how well they can play, crushing the unquestioned #1 New Hampshire. The key to this game is which Madison shows up.

When JMU has the ball

JMU OL vs. W&M DL

The Tribe has had major trouble putting pressure on the QB lately. Sacks have been low, and the opposing team has usually had all day to throw it. Through all that, Adrian Tracy has really stepped up as one of the D’s major contributors. He is leading the team in sacks, tackles for a loss, and tackles. He may not play this week, though, as he was injured late vs. Liberty. Right now his status is uncertain. Josh Wright brings senior leadership to the line, and is #2 on the team in tackles for loss and sacks. Both of these guys need to be in the JMU backfield often if W&M has any shot at winning. Madison’s run blocking this year has been great, and they haven’t given up many sacks if you look away from the App State game(in which they gave up 4). Even when Rascati has gotten sacked, the lost yardage has been low.

JMU running game vs. W&M LB’s

The Tribe has had difficulty stopping the run since Josh Rutter went down, giving up over 180 yards to the halfback in the last 2 games and the the opponent’s starting RB’s average over the last 3 games is 150. Last week Trevor McLaurin was unseated from his starting position for the first time this year, and his replacement, Chris Ndubueze made it worthwhile. He had 11 tackles and a big-time sack. Michael Pigram made his 6th straight start at LB, and Travis McLaurin his third. Pigram got 10 tackles last week and is third on the team, while Travis only got 1 tackle and is 7th on the team. He only has 4 unassisted tackles on the year. Madison had trouble running the ball the first 2 games, but has come on very strong since. In their last 4 games they have rushed for over 247 yards, including 335 vs. Northeastern. That probably has a lot to do with the emergence of junior tailback Eugene Holloman. In his last 3 games he has run for 396(132 per) yards and 4 TD’s. Senior’s Maurice Fenner and Alvin Banks came into the season with high expectations, but Fenner has yet to rush for over 100 yards and Banks has only done it vs. VMI. Fenner has missed the last 2 games due to injury and Banks sat out vs. UNH. Fenner will not be playing vs. W&M. He has been suspended for 2 games due to missing a team bus.

JMU passing game vs. W&M DB’s

W&M has been solid at stopping the pass this year, opponents gain an average of 155 ypg(a number padded by blowouts vs. UMass, UMD) through the air. Senior’s Richard Riley and Alan Wheeling have been key this year, but Alan Wheeling’s status is uncertain after getting injured late in the Liberty game. Last week Wheeling joined Riley and Allen, getting his first INT of the year and returning it 33 yards. Sophomore Derek Cox has also played well and has a bright future. Madison has a great QB in Justin Rascati, but passing just isn’t Mickey Mathews thing. They only throw the ball around 18 times a game, and in the last 2 weeks have thrown it a total of 28 times. When they do throw, though, Rascati has been great. He averages 162 ypg passing and has thrown 8 TD’s compared to 3 INT’s. Though no Madison receivers have really stuck out over the last 3 games, LC Baker was spectacular in his first few games and has 359 yards and 4 TD’s receiving over the course of the season.

When W&M has the ball

W&M OL vs. JMU DL

Finally, the Tribe O-Line wasn’t horrible last week. Liberty got zero sacks and Elijah Brooks ran for over 100 yards. If this O-Line shows up next week I like our chances much more. Madison DT Chuck SuPPon had 3.5 sacks last week vs. New Hampshire, and is second on the team in sacks. End Kevin Winston is right behind him with 4 sacks on the year. They are both seniors, and are trailed by junior tackle John Baranowski who has 3. The 3 of them combine for 18 tackles for loss, and have no doubt been productive this year. The Tribe OL will have their hands full this weekend.

W&M running game vs. JMU LB’s

Elijah Brooks has had 2 100+ yard games this season, one vs. VMI and the other vs. and underrated Liberty run D. All 5 of his TD’s have come in those games. He has also had 2 average games, vs. MD(62) and Hofstra(79), and 2 terrible ones vs. Maine(29) and UMass(35). But Elijah has not been the problem. He can’t gain yards if he doesn’t have holes. If the O-Line plays well this weekend, Elijah will too. Also, if Jake Phillips starts at QB he is always a threat to run. JMU senior LB Akeem Jordon is leading the team in tackles for loss and tackles, and has 3 sacks. Senior Isaiah Dottin-Carter is leading the team in sacks(5), is 3rd in tackles for loss(6), and 2nd in tackles(54). This battle will surely be interesting.

W&M passing game vs. JMU DB’s

For W&M, the passing game all depends on which QB is in. Jake Phillips has been bad passing this year, with a completion percentage under 50%, low yardage gained, and only 4 TD’s compared to 3 INT’s. With Mike Potts, however, has been great passing the ball. In 50 less attempts, Potts has the same number of TD’s(4)and 2 less INT’s(1). He also has 519 yards in only 72 attempts and a 61% completion percentage. He also gets the ball out quickly, getting sacked only twice with a lack of mobility. Junior Joe Nicholas has been solid all year at WR, but last week he only gained 18 yards. RJ Archer, who has jumped onto the scene as one of the Tribes top receivers, made a huge catch that set up a TD and gained a total of 49 yards. DJ McAulay was a great big play threat, but it is looking to me like he won’t play this weekend for the second straight week. Elliot Mack was supposed to be one of the Tribe’s top receivers this year, but has disappeared the last 3 weeks. Elijah Brooks and Matt Trinkle have also been solid contributors to the passing game. The last 2 games the Dukes pass D has been suspect, giving up 352 yards to a spectacular UNH offense and 172 yards to a URI team that has always been a running team. They’ve got 4 INT’s on the year, the biggest being Marcus Haywood’s pick-6 vs. UNH. The secondary is led by Tony LeZotte, a JUNIOR! JUNIOR I SAY! and one of the top DB’s in I-AA.

Special Teams

LC Baker looks like an above-average return man, gaining 73 yards on 2 kickoff returns vs. UNH last week and over 10 yards per punt return over the season. The punting duties for JMU go to Jason Pritchard, I believe a sibling of W&M kicker Blair Pritchard. He averages almost 38 yards per punt, and has kicked-off 11 touchbacks this year. The kicker has been David Rabil. I’m not impressed by his numbers, 3/4 on the year with a long of 25. I’m wondering if he has enough range. He is 27-27 on extra points. Punt returning for W&M this year has been average at best. Derek Cox, hasn’t really broken one yet this year, but he is good for a few yards every return. David Caldwell did the kickoff returns in place of DeBrian Holmes vs. Liberty, and was impressive. Gained 67 yards on 2 returns. W&M kicker Blair Pritchard hasn’t been a whole lot better than Rabil. He is 2-3 with a long of 30, though his miss was on a kick of 38 yards while Rabil’s was much shorter. Pritchard has really improved in the last few games. He is 14-14 on extra points.

Final Predictions

JMU comes out flat and the Tribe makes some big plays through the passing game. The Tribe gives the Dukes a scare on homecoming, but JMU pulls away in the 4th quarter and cruises to a 31-17 win.

Links

JMU stats

W&M stats

JMU website

W&M website

JMU message board

W&M message board

JMU roster

W&M roster

Wow, nice to finally be back in the win column. LU is a solid team(3-3, losses to Towson and Wake), and at this point we need to take any win we can get. I’ll jump into the recap.

-We flat out got lucky. LU’s kicker missed 2 FG’s, and we blocked an additional XP and FG. This game was won on special teams, and kudos to Blair for making both of his XP’s.

-Penalties need to get cut down. We almost let them win the game via a PF penalty. I believe a few other players had some that were not needed(Nicholas).

-Offense. Elijah ran the ball very well today. 24 carries, 113 yards(4.7 per), and 2 TD’s. Great to see him get back on track against a stout LU run D. Phillips started, but the QB’s switched off every possession. Phillips ran the ball well, gaining 35 yards on 6 runs, but his passing was TERRIBLE. 1/8, 3 yards, an INT. Potts was better passing yet again. 6/9 and 92 yards. Archer was great again, going for 49 yards(most of them coming on a 46 yard pass from Potts). The only other players who caught passes were Brooks, Trinkle, and Nicholas, none of which catching more than 2 passes or gaining more than 20 yards. McAulay was injured(foot), and Mack played in his place, but his only impact was a 11 yard reverse. He has really disappeared lately.

-Defense. Running back, and transfer from I believe Pittsburgh, Rashad Jennings lit us up. We wouldn’t have won this game if he didn’t get injured in the 3rd quarter. In only 2 1/2 quarters he gained 186 yards and averaged 8.5 ypc. Second straight week an RB has run all over W&M. The passing D was solid. Wheeling had a great pick and run back, but got injured late, as did Adrian Tracy. We flat out need those guys to even play with JMU.

-More on Rashad Jennings, the guy is only a Sophomore and he beat us into the ground he is special now, I can’t imagine what he is going to be like in 2 years.

-My prediction:I was pretty good again! I said 17-14 W&M, not too far off.

-Players of the game…

Offense

Elijah Brooks

Defense

Alan Wheeling(8)

Josh Wright(94)

Special Teams

Blair Pritchard

One photo to sum up the game….

You can see the ball right next to the goal post.

Thanks to El Scorcho from flamefans.com for the picture!

Click here for the full-size image

The Tribe travels to Liberty next weekend, and we will not be facing the Liberty of years past. This year they are 3-2, and while the wins were against bad teams, Dan Rocco’s team played Towson and Wake Forest tough. This is shaping up to be a great game.

When Liberty has the ball

LU OL vs. W&M DL

Liberty’s OL has been impressive this year. The running game is going great and they have only given up 5 sacks in as many games. W&M defensive line has been solid on the year, but hasn’t gotten enought pressure on the QB. Josh Wright brings a veteran leadership to the line, and Adrian Tracy has become a star, but they haven’t stopped the run as much as they could and the QB has too much time.

LU running game vs. W&M LB’s

Liberty running back Rashad Jennings is turning into a star. Though against weak competition, he is averaging over 110 ypg and has 8 TD’s. Add in Terron Lawrence and company and Liberty averages almost 200 yards per game on the ground. Steve Baylark flat out ran all over the Tribe last week. The loss of Rutter is starting to hurt, and stopping the run this week will be no easy task either. The McLaurins and Chris Ndubueze need to step up.

LU passing game vs. W&M DB’s

The Liberty passing game has been an issue this year, as they only gain 130 ypg. Brock Smith has gotten most of the playing time, but is only completing a little over 50% of his passes and has 2 TD’s(1 INT) in 5 games. After Wynton Jackson and Brandon Turner there is a big drop-off in receivers. No other have over 10 catches. Save last week(318 yards) the Tribe has been pretty good at stopping the pass. Alan Wheeling, Derek Cox, and Richard Riley have all done their job and Kevin Allen(what is his status?) has stepped in well for Zack Stout. David Houff also played well this week and showed great speed.

When W&M has the ball

W&M OL vs. LU DL

Liberty should dominate this matchup. In 5 games they have a whopping 13 sacks. Senior End Jason Horn has 5 of those. The Tribe, on the other hand, has a terrible offensive line and has slowed Elijah Brooks and the Tribe QB’s from doing anything. Last week the pass blocking was better(only 2 sacks on a slower Mike Potts), but the run blocking was just as bad as usual. I am saying this for the 4th week in a row, the line needs to step it up in a big way.

W&M running game vs. LU LB’s

As I just said, Elijah Brooks’ running completely depends on the line. Vs. VMI, when he got blocking, he ran all over them, and he was solid against Hofstra and MD, but Maine and UMass completely shut him down. Maybe some more DeBrian Holmes would be a good thing this week… LU linebacker Stevie Ray Lloyd is leading Liberty in tackles and has an interception to go with it. Manny Rojas is also one of the teams top tacklers, and has a sack and 2 forced fumbles. LU gives up an average of 102 rushing yards per game, half of what they get.

W&M passing game vs. LU DB’s

The passing game took a big step foward last week when Coach Laycock started Mike Potts over Jake Phillips. Potts, vs. a tough UMass D, put up over 200 yards(more than Phillips got in any game this year) and also had a TD. Joe Nicholas was great again, getting another TD. Trinkle and Archer stepped up big, and McAulay was steady again. Liberty’s defensive weakness is in the passing game. They give up 177 ypg, but while their INT number is low(3), their TD’s against is the same.

Special teams

Wynton Jackson looks like a solid returner, averaging 23 yards per kickoff return and almost 12 yards per punt. They are 4-6 on field goals this year, but the long is of only 32. Derek Cox and DeBrian Holmes have been nothing more than average at returning duties this year, with averages of 8.4(Cox on punts) and 18(Holmes on kickoffs). Blair Pritchard has done much better than I expected with the kicking duties. He has made 2-3 field goals, but with a long of 30 range is an issure for him too.

Final Prediction

Elijah runs for about 70 yards and Mike Potts really lights up the Liberty secondary. Jennings still gets his share of yards, but the Tribe don’t let him take over the game and the Liberty passing game can’t beat them. Though this one could go either way, Tribe squeaks out a narrow win. 17-14.

Links

Tribe stats

Flames stats

Tribe message board

Liberty message board

Just when I thought the season couldn’t get any worse. UMass’ D dominated us and Baylark ran like crazy for almost 200 yards. Elijah never got it going(10 carries, 35 yards) and the secondary coverage from UMass was just too good for Potts to do much. 27/50, 244 yards, 1 TD, 1 pick. Nicholas played well again, 5 catches 62 yards and a TD, but nobody else was all that consistent. Archer gained 52 yards but it was only on 2 early passes. McAulay and Trinkle were okay too. Passing game was the only positive. Bottom line is when you give up almost 600 yards you have no shot at winning. Side note: John Taylor is back. So  is Delmus Coley.

What does this mean?

In my opinion the maximum number of games we could win is 5(probably 4), and we might not win another game. Villanova in 3 weeks is looking tougher after they beat Hofstra today. Liberty will be tougher than most fans think, as they are putting together a solid season and almost won @ Towson. JMU looked beatable against Rhody today, but they will be ready to play on the 21st. We have a shot at Towson, but probably not vs. Richmond.

QB situation

Stick with Potts. Phillips just doesn’t run enough, and Potts put up more yards in this game than Phillips has in any game vs. one of the tougher D’s we have faced. The main advantage of playing Phillips is his mobility, but he really hasn’t been running much this year and Potts was sacked only twice today. I like Mike.

My prediction

Nevermind.

Next week is vs. Liberty. Preview should be up today or tomorrow.

And in the most relevant and important news of the day, we are only 6 days away from basketball!

Players of the game:

I’ll give it to a few players…

Offense

Mike Potts and Joe Nicholas

Defense

Derek Cox(no picture)

Special Teams

DeBrian Holmes and Blair Pritchard