Quite possibly the worst game of the season. Jay Colley laid out the excuses pre-game, that Stein, Kisielius, and  Mann had the flu, that we had a long trip, didn’t have time to shootaround. But either way, if you don’t come to play anybody can hang an L on you.

2 players came to play, Peter Stein and Adam Payton. Payton scored 16 points to go along with 4 rebounds. Stein scored 10 in 21 minutes, but had 4 fouls and only one rebound.

Then we had a fall off. Mann had 5 with 4 rebounds. Sumner and Darnell had 4 each(Sumner’s were actually very nice). Trumbower, Kisielius, and Smith had 2. There’s the scoring summary.

Sumner was the only other bright spot, and had a very nice mid-range jumper and blocked a Fairfield shot and took it coast-to-coast for a lay-up off a spin move. We need to develop him this year through increased game time, and by mid-season next year he will be great.

A couple other nice stats: 2/16 from 3. 7 assists, 15 turnovers. The Tribe shot 41% from the field, but in the end it didn’t matter. Our first half offense was ghastly, scoring 13 points, and in the second half we could get a stop. Fairfield was lights out from 3 in the second half, and that was the one thing the Tribe couldn’t overcome.

The only good news is that this game means very little to the Tribe. W&M has 1 more loss on the schedule, and a win would have locked up a winning season, but the Tribe is still where they were in the CAA after the Drexel win. We are tied for 5th, and have a very solid shot at holding that spot, or at least ending the season with the 6th seed.

Go Tribe!

The W&M Tribe will play its first ever bracket buster game saturday, traveling to Bridgeport, Connecticut to face the Fairfield Stags. Fairfield, a small Jesuit school from the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference(MAAC), is 11-17 on the season but has won 8/10. They are under a first year coach, Ed Cooley.

Fairfield is 205 in the RPI, in the 23rd MAAC conference, with their biggest win at Siena. They are rated 202 in the Pomeroy Rating, which gives them a 1 point advantage and a 55% chance of a win. Mike Greenfield has them at #220, and gives them a 2 point spread and a 59% chance of winning. They’re strongest team statistic is offensive rebounding percentage, where they are 9th in the nation.

Fairfield is -3 in scoring differential, and is led by Mike Van Schaick. Van Schaick is averaging 15 points per game, and is shooting 46% from the field along with 41% from 3 and 84% from the foul stripe. He is averaging 3.9 rebounds per game and has a positive assist-turnover ratio to boot. He is one of the top on his team with 32 steals.

Freshman foward Greg Nero is second on the team in scoring, at 9.5 points per. He leads the team with 30 blocks and is also shooting 45% from the field. He’s shooting 78% from the foul stripe, and is averaging 3.6 rebounds a game.

Another Freshman foward, Anothony Johnson, is third on the team in scoring, at 8.4 a game. He is shooting a team-high 53% from the field, and is averaging 4.9 rebounds per. He is shooting 64% from the foul stripe and has 29 blocks on the year.

Now for the Fairfield fans, a little bit of information about the Tribe.

The Tribe has had one of its best seasons in years, currently at 15-11. Highlighted by a win at Final Four participant George Mason and at home Wednesday night against Drexel, W&M is 8-8 in the CAA and competing for 5th place in the conference.

The Tribe has had 3 guards come through this year, Junior Nathan Mann, Senior Adam Payton, and Freshman David Schneider. Schneider came out of nowhere, expected to ride the pine this year, and behind an unorthodox shot is averaging 8.7 points a game. He is probably a lock to make the CAA all-rookie team. Mann, a sharp-shooter from Overland Park, Kansas, is averaging 9.2 points per game and has made more 3’s than anybody else on the team. Adam Payton, a transfer from Vandy, is the Tribe’s most athletic guard and has really stepped up in his final year. Payton is leading the team in points per game, at 13.5, steals, at 40, free throw percentage, at 87%, and rebounds, and 4.2 per game.

The Tribe’s 3 best big men this year have been Laimis Kisielius, Peter Stein, and Alex Smith. Kisielius, a native of Lithuania, is averaging 11.9 points per game, and is shooting 48% from the field and 42% from 3. Stein, a sophomore, is averaging 5.7 points per game and leads the team with 12 blocks. He is also shooting 58% from the floor. Finally, Alex Smith is averaging 5.4 points per, but has been held back due to a dehydration issue, causing him to only play in spurts.

The Tribe’s success depends on its defense, and their interior D against Drexel is what won them the game. They are one of the nations top teams at defending the 3, and if they play like they have been the last 3 games they will beat Fairfield.

W&M-60
Fairfield-50

The Tribe comes back home after an impressive road swing, pulling off 2 wins, and getting back on the right track. Drexel is also playing some solid ball, with 3 straight wins including a road win against Hofstra. They are 19-6 on the year, 11-4 in the CAA, and have impressive road wins at Villanova and Syracuse.

Drexel is one of the only CAA teams with at-large bid chances, partly due to their 50 RPI. They are 80 in the Pomeroy ratings, which gives them a 76% chance of winning Wednesday. Mike Greenfield gives them a 77% chance of winning, and is giving W&M 7 points.

Drexel is defined by its’ defense this season, and is 28th in the nation in field goal percentage against. They are 28th in the nation in blocks, 13th in the nation in 2-point defense(hello Chaz Crawford). Speaking of Chaz, he is 10th in the nation at % of blocks, and also 10th at offensive rebound percentage.

Drexel is led on offense by Frank Elegar, who is averaging 15.5 points per game. He also has 7 rebounds a game, and is shooting over 50% from the field. He is getting 1.2 blocks per game, which goes along with a 67% free throw percentage. He is a 6-9, 220 Junior center.

Senior G Bashir Mason is averaging 12.1 points per, and has an assist/to ratio of 1.4. He is shooting 45% from the floor and 79% from the free throw line. He is averaging 2.8 rebounds per game and 3.4 assists per, to go along with 2.3 steals a game.

Also a Senior, Dominick Mejia is averaging 11.5 points per game. He is pulling down 3.7 rebounds per game, but averages only 1.1 assits per game and has an assist/to ratio of .6. He is shooting 37% from the field and 76% from the foul stripe, and will need to come to play for DU to be on top of its’ game.

Finally, senior defensive-specialist Chaz Crawford is averaging 6.8 points per game. Crawford is averaging 9.5 rebounds per game, definitely one of the top in the CAA, and has 3.5 blocks a match. He also leads the team with a 1.5 assist/turnover ratio, very good for a big man.

Admittedly, I haven’t gotten a great chance to see them play this year. I would be ecstatic if the Tribe could pull off a split, but I’m really not sure it’s going to happen. The 2 big men will be far too much down low, and the Tribe will barely be able to hold serve with the guards. I’d be much happier about our chances if the home game came second, but you’ve gotta play with the schedule dealt to you.

Drexel-76
W&M-66

For the first time since the 93-94 season, winning 61-55. 

The biggest difference between this game and the last was a great shooting performance from Nathan Mann, going 9/14 from the field and scoring 25 points.

David Schneider also put together a solid stat line, scoring 7 to go along with 5 rebounds and 3 assists.

Kisielius got 30 minutes tonight, scoring 6 and getting 4 rebounds. His ankle is still bothering him, and we need him to have any chance at upsetting Drexel Wednesday.

Alex Smith also scored 7, Peter Stein pitched in with 6, and Adam Payton got 4.

This game was a great example of how far we’ve come. W&M was the team that knew how to win late, and UNCW seemed lost.

Let’s go Tribe! Beat Drexel!

Get ready. It’s time for the home stretch.

I’m leaving the top 5 out of it for the time-being, as 4 of them are playing right now.

6th place…who wants it?

First W&M had the edge, but losses to UDel and UNCW have really killed their advantage. Then Towson looked like they had it locked up, but 2 straight losses have hurt their shot. Right now Towson, William and Mary, and Northeastern are all locked up, so here is how it looks.

Towson, who holds all tie-breakers, has 3 remaining games at home with GSU, JMU, and Drexel. It looks like they will lose one of those, but Tribe fans really need them to drop 2. Also, they play @ODU, which looks like a loss.

Northeastern, who is generally last in the tie-breakers, has 3 remaining road games and only one at home. JMU, GSU, and Delaware are the road teams, but NU is generally bad on the road. They also have GMU at home, and we need them to lose that and possibly 2 more.

W&M has the toughest remaining schedule, with road games at UNCW and Drexel, and Drexel and ODU at home. UNCW is a must win got the Tribe, but the other ones will be tough. They Tribe has to pull one upset to have a legit shot a 6th.

Another thing to throw out there-if GMU loses tonight, these 3 teams will only 1 game behind George Mason. Mason has 2 tough games remaining, so watch out.

Back to the topic at hand…

GSU is currently in 9th place, but probably only has one win left on their schedule. JMU is tied with them, and has a very similar remaining schedule, all against team’s in 8th or higher. If each can pull an upset over NU or TU, who both of them play, we will be in much better shape. UNCW is tied for 11th, and will battle Delaware on the last game of the year for last place.

So, here are the scenarios:

Towson gets 6th with 2 wins, NU gets 7th with 2, and W&M gets 8th with 1

W&M is in 8th place, facing either GSU or JMU in the first round 8/9 game, and get knocks out by VCU in the second round.

W&M wins 2 and gets 6th, NU wins 2 and gets 7th, Towson wins 1 and gets 8th

W&M gets either a 6-man Delaware squad or UNCW in the first round in the 6/11 game, and then faces #3 seed which will either be Hofstra, ODU, or possibly Drexel.

Towson wins 2 and gets 6th, W&M wins 2 and gets 7th, NU wins 2 or 1 and gets 8th

W&M will face the loser of the GSU/JMU standings battle in the 7/10 game, and then faces the 2 seed which will probably be Hofstra.

Final thoughts…

We need to win 2, which will probably get us the 7th seed at the worst. UD and UNCW are really killing us now, as we’d be in the #5 spot with those wins, but either way we need to stay out of 8th and VCU’s bracket.

By the way…There will be no “scouting UNCW” this time, as I wrote one a few days ago. Nothing really should have changed since then.

That’s right, W&M basketball just beat JMU for the 6th straight time. And what a great win it was. In a virtual toss-up after being upset at home by UNCW, W&M came out firing, beating JMU by 15 in their gym.

I’m working without stats, but here are the keys for me:

Schneider-Finally broke out of his slump, scoring 11. The foul shooting still needs work, as he missed 3 of 4 down the strech, but I’ll take that kind of effort out of him every night. Most importantly, it seemed he was attacking the basketball, and make a couple shots inside the arc. Definitely a great time for him to do it, against ROY candidate Pierre Curtis.

D-D-D-DEFENSE!-Again, I have no stats, but it seemed like we really kept the Dukes to a low shooting percentage, and importantly kept Joe Posey tame from 3. The only bad thing I can say about the D was the fouling down low, but that may have been a referee thing.

Stein-Scored 17, including 2 big dunks. Alex Smith has really disappeared lately, so him stepping up has been key. It is spectacular that he is playing this well, and I am overjoyed that we have him for 2 more years.

Kisielius-Laimis got the start tonight, and while he didn’t have a very good game, I think that is a step foward. I really think we beat UNCW, who just lost to UD, if he is back to 100%

Towson lost-And we are now tied with them and NU for 6th place! Cheer as hard as you can against those 2 for the rest of the year.

Go Tribe!

Didn’t I just do this? Scroll down the page a little for some hardly changed stats, so now I’ll focus on game odds and JMU’s last game. The Dukes are coming off a win, their 7th of the year and their 4th in the conference. They beat Delaware in Newark, completing the sweep with a 69-64 win.

JMU was carried by JuCo transfer Terrence Carter, who scored 28 of their 69 points. He was 9-20 from the field and 9-14 from the foul stripe, carrying the team and picking up a double-double with 12 rebounds. Joe Posey also had a solid game scoring 13 and going 5-10 from the field.

The Dukes shot 47% from the field and 41% from 3, while UD shot 50% and 35% respectively. JMU got out-rebounded, 30-27, but kept down the turnovers with 6 less than UDel. JMU beat them at points in the paint, 2nd chance points, fast break points, and bench points. They did, however, have 2 player foul out, which could come into play Wednesday night.

JMU is 294 in the RPI after their win, but it is still last in the CAA. They are 264 in the Pomeroy Rating, which gives them a 42% chance of winning. Mike Greenfield has them pegged at 277, giving W&M the slight edge in spread and giving the Dukes a 49% chance at winning.

This game is pretty much a toss-up. If Kisielius is a “go”, the Tribe’s chance is significantly better, but that is no better than 50-50 right now. However, the Tribe has beaten JMU in the last 5 match-ups, and I’m not picking against them until they prove me wrong.

W&M-65
JMU-63

Go Tribe!

THAT was rough.

Kisielius was out for some reason, and we suddenly had no offense. Couldn’t get open from 3, and UNCW’s center couldn’t be stopped.

Without Kisielius, and zero production from Schneider, this team simply isn’t very good. Payton, Mann, and Stein are slightly above average in the CAA, but it isn’t enough to carry a team.

Stratton probably got the most minutes he ever has, and played pretty well with a bloody nose. Not a huge amount of production, but solid.

Mental mistakes, bad execution, and no Kisielius made us lose. On to JMU.

UNCW is coming to town Saturday night for one of the Tribe’s final home games of the season. The Seahawks have had a disappointing year, going 5-16 and 2-10 in conference just a year after winning the Colonial. Just 2 games ago they upset George Mason, but since then they have lost to GSU, who swept them for the year. Their only other CAA win is against JMU, and they have lost to some bad teams, the worst being a 100-94 loss to Campbell.

UNCW comes into this game at 266 in the RPI, second to last in the conference. They are much better in the Pomeroy rating, at 212. He gives them only a 27% chance of winning tomorrow night. They are 34th in the nation at 3-point defence. Vladimir Kuljanin is 8th in the nation in effective field goal %, and Temi Soyebo is 10th in the nation at assist rate. The Hawks are 254 in the Mike Greenfield ratings, who is giving them 4.5 points, and a 30% chance of winning.

Vladimir Kuljanin is UNCW’s leading scorer with 13.6 points per game. He is shooting 69% from the field on the year, and 68% from the foul stripe. Vladimir leads the team in rebounding with 7.3 a game, even though he has only started 2/3 of their games. If he keeps playing like he has he could be an All-CAA type player.

Daniel Fountain, a junior guard from Woodbridge VA, is averaging 11.1 points per game. He has started in 15 games this year, and is shooting 36% from the field and 35% from the 3-point line. He is shooting 74% from the charity stripe and averages 3.3 boards per game. He is in the negative in assist-turnover ratio, at 37-38.

Finally, Todd Hendley is a junior foward from Sanford, NC. He is averaging 10.2 points per game and shooting 44% from the field. He is draining 36% of his threes, and shooting 76% from the foul line. He is averaging 4.2 rebounds per game, but his assist-turnover ratio is over 1-2. He has started more games than anyone else on the Dub, at 19.

I really don’t see UNCW winning this game. Fans are pumped after several straight home wins. Weekend night games really favor the home team. The Tribe is playing some pretty good ball, and not so much for UNCW. Tribe should win this fairly easily.

W&M-68
UNCW-58

From the view of the Tribe.

Right now, the worst spot we can really get is 8th. GSU has 4 wins in 9th place, but we hold the advantage against them. Right now we are in 7th, tied with NU with whom we hold the tiebreaker. Towson is a game + the tie ahead of us in 6th, so I’ll give some projected final standings.

W&M
Current=5-7
Next 6=UNCW, @UNCW, @JMU, @Drexel, Drexel, ODU
Projected finish=3-3
Projected final record=8-10

Towson
Current=6-6
Next 6=@ Drexel, @ Northeastern, @ ODU, GSU, Drexel, JMU
Projected finish=2-4
Projected final record=8-10(plus tie)

Northeastern
Current=5-7
Next 6=@ Hofstra, Towson, @JMU, @GSU, @UD, GMU
Projected finish=3-3
Projected final record=8-10(no tie)

So pretty much, we need NU to finish at 8-10 and either Towson to get upset by GSU/JMU, or the Tribe to pull one against Drexel(twice) or ODU at home on senior day. Looks like it may be a 7th place finish this year, facing #10 seed in the first round and #2 seed in the second.