Get ready. It’s time for the home stretch.

I’m leaving the top 5 out of it for the time-being, as 4 of them are playing right now.

6th place…who wants it?

First W&M had the edge, but losses to UDel and UNCW have really killed their advantage. Then Towson looked like they had it locked up, but 2 straight losses have hurt their shot. Right now Towson, William and Mary, and Northeastern are all locked up, so here is how it looks.

Towson, who holds all tie-breakers, has 3 remaining games at home with GSU, JMU, and Drexel. It looks like they will lose one of those, but Tribe fans really need them to drop 2. Also, they play @ODU, which looks like a loss.

Northeastern, who is generally last in the tie-breakers, has 3 remaining road games and only one at home. JMU, GSU, and Delaware are the road teams, but NU is generally bad on the road. They also have GMU at home, and we need them to lose that and possibly 2 more.

W&M has the toughest remaining schedule, with road games at UNCW and Drexel, and Drexel and ODU at home. UNCW is a must win got the Tribe, but the other ones will be tough. They Tribe has to pull one upset to have a legit shot a 6th.

Another thing to throw out there-if GMU loses tonight, these 3 teams will only 1 game behind George Mason. Mason has 2 tough games remaining, so watch out.

Back to the topic at hand…

GSU is currently in 9th place, but probably only has one win left on their schedule. JMU is tied with them, and has a very similar remaining schedule, all against team’s in 8th or higher. If each can pull an upset over NU or TU, who both of them play, we will be in much better shape. UNCW is tied for 11th, and will battle Delaware on the last game of the year for last place.

So, here are the scenarios:

Towson gets 6th with 2 wins, NU gets 7th with 2, and W&M gets 8th with 1

W&M is in 8th place, facing either GSU or JMU in the first round 8/9 game, and get knocks out by VCU in the second round.

W&M wins 2 and gets 6th, NU wins 2 and gets 7th, Towson wins 1 and gets 8th

W&M gets either a 6-man Delaware squad or UNCW in the first round in the 6/11 game, and then faces #3 seed which will either be Hofstra, ODU, or possibly Drexel.

Towson wins 2 and gets 6th, W&M wins 2 and gets 7th, NU wins 2 or 1 and gets 8th

W&M will face the loser of the GSU/JMU standings battle in the 7/10 game, and then faces the 2 seed which will probably be Hofstra.

Final thoughts…

We need to win 2, which will probably get us the 7th seed at the worst. UD and UNCW are really killing us now, as we’d be in the #5 spot with those wins, but either way we need to stay out of 8th and VCU’s bracket.

By the way…There will be no “scouting UNCW” this time, as I wrote one a few days ago. Nothing really should have changed since then.

That’s right, W&M basketball just beat JMU for the 6th straight time. And what a great win it was. In a virtual toss-up after being upset at home by UNCW, W&M came out firing, beating JMU by 15 in their gym.

I’m working without stats, but here are the keys for me:

Schneider-Finally broke out of his slump, scoring 11. The foul shooting still needs work, as he missed 3 of 4 down the strech, but I’ll take that kind of effort out of him every night. Most importantly, it seemed he was attacking the basketball, and make a couple shots inside the arc. Definitely a great time for him to do it, against ROY candidate Pierre Curtis.

D-D-D-DEFENSE!-Again, I have no stats, but it seemed like we really kept the Dukes to a low shooting percentage, and importantly kept Joe Posey tame from 3. The only bad thing I can say about the D was the fouling down low, but that may have been a referee thing.

Stein-Scored 17, including 2 big dunks. Alex Smith has really disappeared lately, so him stepping up has been key. It is spectacular that he is playing this well, and I am overjoyed that we have him for 2 more years.

Kisielius-Laimis got the start tonight, and while he didn’t have a very good game, I think that is a step foward. I really think we beat UNCW, who just lost to UD, if he is back to 100%

Towson lost-And we are now tied with them and NU for 6th place! Cheer as hard as you can against those 2 for the rest of the year.

Go Tribe!

http://www.dailypress.com/sports/dp-triberecruit1,0,5885572.story?coll=dp-sports-local

Didn’t I just do this? Scroll down the page a little for some hardly changed stats, so now I’ll focus on game odds and JMU’s last game. The Dukes are coming off a win, their 7th of the year and their 4th in the conference. They beat Delaware in Newark, completing the sweep with a 69-64 win.

JMU was carried by JuCo transfer Terrence Carter, who scored 28 of their 69 points. He was 9-20 from the field and 9-14 from the foul stripe, carrying the team and picking up a double-double with 12 rebounds. Joe Posey also had a solid game scoring 13 and going 5-10 from the field.

The Dukes shot 47% from the field and 41% from 3, while UD shot 50% and 35% respectively. JMU got out-rebounded, 30-27, but kept down the turnovers with 6 less than UDel. JMU beat them at points in the paint, 2nd chance points, fast break points, and bench points. They did, however, have 2 player foul out, which could come into play Wednesday night.

JMU is 294 in the RPI after their win, but it is still last in the CAA. They are 264 in the Pomeroy Rating, which gives them a 42% chance of winning. Mike Greenfield has them pegged at 277, giving W&M the slight edge in spread and giving the Dukes a 49% chance at winning.

This game is pretty much a toss-up. If Kisielius is a “go”, the Tribe’s chance is significantly better, but that is no better than 50-50 right now. However, the Tribe has beaten JMU in the last 5 match-ups, and I’m not picking against them until they prove me wrong.

W&M-65
JMU-63

Go Tribe!

THAT was rough.

Kisielius was out for some reason, and we suddenly had no offense. Couldn’t get open from 3, and UNCW’s center couldn’t be stopped.

Without Kisielius, and zero production from Schneider, this team simply isn’t very good. Payton, Mann, and Stein are slightly above average in the CAA, but it isn’t enough to carry a team.

Stratton probably got the most minutes he ever has, and played pretty well with a bloody nose. Not a huge amount of production, but solid.

Mental mistakes, bad execution, and no Kisielius made us lose. On to JMU.

UNCW is coming to town Saturday night for one of the Tribe’s final home games of the season. The Seahawks have had a disappointing year, going 5-16 and 2-10 in conference just a year after winning the Colonial. Just 2 games ago they upset George Mason, but since then they have lost to GSU, who swept them for the year. Their only other CAA win is against JMU, and they have lost to some bad teams, the worst being a 100-94 loss to Campbell.

UNCW comes into this game at 266 in the RPI, second to last in the conference. They are much better in the Pomeroy rating, at 212. He gives them only a 27% chance of winning tomorrow night. They are 34th in the nation at 3-point defence. Vladimir Kuljanin is 8th in the nation in effective field goal %, and Temi Soyebo is 10th in the nation at assist rate. The Hawks are 254 in the Mike Greenfield ratings, who is giving them 4.5 points, and a 30% chance of winning.

Vladimir Kuljanin is UNCW’s leading scorer with 13.6 points per game. He is shooting 69% from the field on the year, and 68% from the foul stripe. Vladimir leads the team in rebounding with 7.3 a game, even though he has only started 2/3 of their games. If he keeps playing like he has he could be an All-CAA type player.

Daniel Fountain, a junior guard from Woodbridge VA, is averaging 11.1 points per game. He has started in 15 games this year, and is shooting 36% from the field and 35% from the 3-point line. He is shooting 74% from the charity stripe and averages 3.3 boards per game. He is in the negative in assist-turnover ratio, at 37-38.

Finally, Todd Hendley is a junior foward from Sanford, NC. He is averaging 10.2 points per game and shooting 44% from the field. He is draining 36% of his threes, and shooting 76% from the foul line. He is averaging 4.2 rebounds per game, but his assist-turnover ratio is over 1-2. He has started more games than anyone else on the Dub, at 19.

I really don’t see UNCW winning this game. Fans are pumped after several straight home wins. Weekend night games really favor the home team. The Tribe is playing some pretty good ball, and not so much for UNCW. Tribe should win this fairly easily.

W&M-68
UNCW-58

From the view of the Tribe.

Right now, the worst spot we can really get is 8th. GSU has 4 wins in 9th place, but we hold the advantage against them. Right now we are in 7th, tied with NU with whom we hold the tiebreaker. Towson is a game + the tie ahead of us in 6th, so I’ll give some projected final standings.

W&M
Current=5-7
Next 6=UNCW, @UNCW, @JMU, @Drexel, Drexel, ODU
Projected finish=3-3
Projected final record=8-10

Towson
Current=6-6
Next 6=@ Drexel, @ Northeastern, @ ODU, GSU, Drexel, JMU
Projected finish=2-4
Projected final record=8-10(plus tie)

Northeastern
Current=5-7
Next 6=@ Hofstra, Towson, @JMU, @GSU, @UD, GMU
Projected finish=3-3
Projected final record=8-10(no tie)

So pretty much, we need NU to finish at 8-10 and either Towson to get upset by GSU/JMU, or the Tribe to pull one against Drexel(twice) or ODU at home on senior day. Looks like it may be a 7th place finish this year, facing #10 seed in the first round and #2 seed in the second.

1)VCU
2)Hofstra
3)ODU
4)Drexel
5)GMU
6)Towson
7)W&M
8)Northeastern
9)JMU
10)GSU
11)UD
12)UNCW

The score lies.

After several unreal 3’s, JMU got it to within 3, the closest it had been since the start of the game.

Nathan Mann could not miss tonight, going 8-11 from the field and scoring 21. He also had  2 assists and 2 boards.

Payton also had 16 points, along with 5 rebounds.

Kisielius dropped in 13 more, to go along with 4 boards.

Schneider didn’t really score tonight, only getting 2 on a lay-up, but his 6 assists and 2 steals more than made up for it.

We are in 7th place right now, and really need Towson to lose to lock up the 6th spot.

UNCW lost to Georgia State tonight, and we should beat them Saturday.

Go Tribe.