Scouting VCU, Version 2
Posted by TTHS on January 28th, 2007
The regular preview, done a couple weeks ago, can be found here. I’ll focus on how they’ve done since that game.
VCU is 5-0 since our meeting at Kaplan, including wins against ODU, and @ GMU and Drexel. Only twice - one by Maynor, one by Pellot-Rosa - has a member of the guard combo, consisting of BA Walker, Jesse Pellot-Rosa, and Eric Maynor, not been in double-figures in that 5-game span. One of them has led the team in each of those games, with at least 22 points.
BA Walker is the only player to put up double-figures in each of the last 5 games. Walker scored 12 against Towson, 20 against UNCW, 19 against ODU, 24 against GMU, and 24 against Drexel. He is seriously contending for CAA Player of the year, and his 16 ppg doesn’t hurt one bit.
VCU, a potential top 25 team, is all over the top stats. Not only do they play a frantic pace, but the fact that they are #5 in the nation at keeping down turnovers really put them over the hump. They are 12th in the nation at steal percentage, a stat comparing number of steals per possesion, and they get a steal every 7. Also, Eric Maynor and his incredible assist-turnover rate of 124-43, earned him the 33 spot in nation at assist rate.
VCU is 52 in the RPI and 60 in Pomeroy rating, which gives them a 95% chance of winning. Ken Pomeroy predicts them to win, 78-61. Mike Greenfield, who has them at 31 in the nation, gives them a 93% chance of winning and puts the spread at W&M +15.
We can beat this team, and coming off Drexel with Hofstra next, adding a top 25 possiblity to the mix, they easily could over-look us. However, first-year coach Anthony Grant seems to really have them under control, and they should win. Closer than the experts think.
VCU-75
W&M-65