The Tribe Has Spoken

Conference play really starts on Wednesday when the Tribe travels to Fairfax to take on the George Mason Patriots. In this post I’ll preview the CAA, give some grades on the Tribe, and do my “Scouting Mason” portion. Updates will come throughout today.

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GMU-away on Jan. 3, home on Jan. 16

Mason has been a middle of the pack CAA team thus far, with a current record of 6-5. They have played an extremely tough, 43rd hardest in the nation, schedule including Wichita State, Creighton, Bucknell, Duke, Holy Cross, Drexel, and Mississippi State. Ouch. They are 76 RPI and will come in to both Tribe games steady favorites. An upset isn’t out of the question, but would have to come on the 16th. Mason should win both, with an outside shot at a split, but don’t expect them to repeat last year’s success.

Northeastern-Home on Jan. 6, no away

Northeastern was supposed to be rebuilding this year, but nobody told them. After losing their 2 best players, Shawn James and Jose Juan Barea, and getting a new coach, they have gone through their murderous schedule(Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville, BC, UConn) with a W over the dub(UNCW) and a close call vs. BC. Yeah, they are 3-9, but don’t expect them to be a last place team this year. Either way, they are 0-9 away from home and that is why the Tribe will win the 2 teams’ only match-up.

Georgia State-Away on Jan. 8, Home Jan. 27

Georgia State is another team who has battled through a tough schedule, with losses to Clemson, Iowa, FSU, GT, and Charlotte. They have played one CAA game, a narrow loss at Hofstra, and will probably be better this year than last. They are currently 4-6, with all their wins over teams in the 300’s RPI. The Tribe should - and will be favored - in both games against the Panthers, but it will be no cakewalk. We got trucked last year at their place, so look at that as a possible upset.

VCU-Home Jan. 10, Away Jan. 29

VCU has gotten off to a very fast start under former Florida assistant Anthony Grant, going 9-3 in dominant fashion. They’ve played a weak schedule, best win being against UAB, but have really destroyed opponents in their wins(all of double-digit margains). Grant has brought in a new system, backed by the slogan “94 feet both ways”, with a frantic pace that has really confused opponents. They have 2 solid losses, App St. and Xavier, but the Toledo one is troubling as they are 4-8. VCU will be heavily favored in both games, and I see them winning both.

UD-Away Jan. 13, no home

I’m just going to get in out of the way right now, Delaware is not good. They started the season 0-9, but Monte Ross has his boys playing some solid basketball now. They ran off 2 straight - their first 2 wins of the season - and had a close loss against Holy Cross. Even though they beat La Salle and Niagra easily, I like the Tribe to win this match-up and the season series after a close L in Williamsburg last year.

Hofstra-Away Jan. 20, no home

Before this weekend, I though Hofstra was right around where we are. Now, I put them a step up. With a loss to Manhattan and no big wins, I thought they would be in the middle half of the CAA, but Stokes and co. turned in up vs. St. Joe’s and St. John’s last week, winning an NY tournament and really proving themselves a top-half CAA team. The 8-4 Pride probably have the best guard-play in the league, but can be exploited down low. I like the Pride in their only match-up with W&M.

ODU-Away Jan. 24, home Feb. 24

ODU will be one of the CAA’s top 3 team’s this season, with right there with Drexel and VCU. The Monarch’s are another team that has battled through a difficult schedule, facing Marist, Georgetown, Winthrop, and VT, but knocked off Georgetown, in GTown’s gym, by 13 earlier in the season. While their signature win was on the road, they were also stomped @ Marist and @ VT, so that may be their biggest concern heading into conference play. ODU will head into the tournament with a very high seed, and the experienced PG Drew Williamson will help them contend for another CAA title. The Tribe has little hope of beating the Monarch’s in either game.

JMU-Home Jan 31, Away Feb. 7

With UD’s recent success, and JMU’s continued struggles, the Duke’s have slipped to #12 in most CAA rankings. JMU is 3-8, with 3 close W’s against Wofford, VMI, and the New Jersey institute of Technology. But some of their losses have been just embarrising, like losing by 20 to Youngstown State, and losing to Dartmouth or Mount St. Mary’s by any margin. Expect JMU to enter the tourney with the #12 seed, and the Tribe to beat them soundly in both games.

UNCW-Home Feb. 3, Away Feb. 10

UNCW has gotten off to a rough start, especially by their standards. With losses to Campbell, Northeastern, and a trashing from NCST, UNCW is 3-7 and will probably be battling for position come tourney time. They are another one of the several CAA teams with a new coach and they have probably gotten off to the worst start of them all(think expectations). UNCW is always very tough at home, so we probably won’t pull that, but beating them at the Hall is very likely and I think it will happen. Tribe and ‘Hawks split.

Drexel-Home Feb. 14, Away Feb. 21

Drexel has proven thus far to be the best team in the CAA, dominating an extremely tough schedule. The Dragons are 8-2, and have given the CAA a chance to get 2 bids this year. Now time to read off their wins: Vermont, St. Joe’s, Villanova, Syracuse, Temple, George Mason. Wow. Even with losses to Rider and Penn, the Dragons are #7 in the RPI and serious contenders for an at-large. Behind Chaz Crawford, Frank Elegar, and Bashir Mason, Drexel will beat the Tribe in both games and hopefully get an at-large.

Towson-None left, already lost at Home

I’ll give Towson a preview, even though we are finished for the year. The Tigers, led by Gary Neal, are 6-5 and a middle of the pack team. They played a tough schedule, with Georgetown, Temple, and Kansas, but their best wins are much worse in Vermont and W&M. If Neal can continue to put up 25 a night and carry the team, I think they can get a 5 or 6 seed, but if he gets cold expect the Tigers to struggle.

Power Rankings

1. Drexel
2. ODU
3. VCU
4. Hofstra
5. Mason
6. Towson
7. W&M
8. NU
9. UNCW
10. GSU
11. UD
12. JMU

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TTHS Mid-Season Awards

MVP-Laimis Kisielius. Laimis has been the team’s leading scorer, at 13.7 per, and is also top in field goal percentage and 3-point shooting percentage. Laimis has been making the clutch shots - especially free throws - all season, and I think this award is appropriate for LK.
Runner-up-David Schneider, soley based on how much we struggled in the game(s) he missed.

Devensive POY-Easily Adam Payton. AP is leading the team in steals and is always making big plays on D. His 2 stolen inbounds against Cornell really sealed the game and the award for him. AP is DPOY.
Runner-up-I’m going to go with Schneider again. David is second on the team in steals, and is active on every play.

Freshman of the Year-Very easy choice, and that choice is David Schneider. From the second David stepped on the practice court he was the top freshman on the team, and he further proved it in his first game against Kansas State dropping 18. The numbers have dropped, but he is averaging 10.5 ppg, 3 boards per, is second on the team in steals, and has 26-18 turnovers-assists.
Runner-up-Steve Hess. Hess is the only other freshman really playing, and is one of the team’s hardest workers.

Suprise of the Year-Kyle Carrabine. Did anybody really expect him to be one of the first subs? He has played solid D for the Tribe and become one of the team’s biggest threats from 3. After being non-existant last season, he has become the team’s #6 scorer.
Runner-up-Adam Trumbower. Trum has stepped in and done a very solid job at a postition where we had nobody else.

Biggest Improvement for Second Half-I think Steve Hess improves the most in the second half. He is always the first one working out and at pre-game shoot-around, and soon that will pay off. Watch for Hess to become an even better contributor in the second half.

Biggest Disappointment-Has to be Corey Cofield. Corey was supposed to be one of the team’s best players, yet hasn’t even taken off the warm-ups in the last 2 games. There is a rumor floating that it is due to lack of effort stemming from his knee injury, and I wouldn’t be suprised if it were true.

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Scouting Mason

The Tribe travels to Fairfax for it’s second CAA game of the year, taking on the George Mason Patriots. Mason is 6-5 coming off it’s final 4 run, but more importantly just beat Mississippi State. This will be a humoungous test for the Tribe, to see if we have progressed since Towson.

GMU’s is coming off 2 solid wins in it’s last 3 games, beating Holy Cross(99) and Mississippi State(88). All of their losses have been against quality teams, in Witchita State, Duke, Creighton, Bucknell, and Drexel. They are #76 in the RPI and #93 in the Pomeroy rating. KenPom says Mason has a 91% chance of winning.

Mason is led by 3 players, the first being junior foward Will Thomas. Thomas is second on the team in scoring with 13.6 per game, and played a large role in Mason’s final 4 run last year. He is the leading rebounder, at 7.1 boards a game, and is in the positive when it comes to assist-turnover ratio.

Their leading scorer, however, is Folarin Cambell. Campbell, also a key member of last years ground-breaking team, is a junior foward from Silver Spring, MD. Campbell averages over 15 per game, and about 3 boards. He leads the team in steals, with 18, and is one of their best free throw shooters.

#3 on the trifecta of solid scorers is John Vaughn. Vaughn is a red-shirt sophomore from Maryland, and is the only returning starter from last season in the back court. Vaughn averages 11.7 ppg, and has made more 3’s than anyone on the team.

One of Mason’s biggest weaknesses is 3-point shooting, where they are only hitting 30%. Also, don’t foul Folarin Cambell, as he has scored 54 of Mason’s 109 points from the foul line. Finally, try to get Campbell and/or Thomas into foul trouble. Mason will be very average without on or both of them. Yes, I am reaching.

I really don’t think the Tribe will win, at least until the Patriots come to Williamsburg. W&M will keep it close, though, and the final score will be….

W&M-60
Mason-68