W&M @ JMU Preview
Posted by TTHS on October 16th, 2006
Overview
The big question for this game is which Madison team will show up. The first 2 games of the year were tough, barely beating DII Bloomsburg(yes, they are a top DII team, but they were without far and away their best player) and losing by 11 to then #1 APP State. The rebounded well for the next 2 games, though, crushing Northeastern and VMI, but those games were followed by a narrow victory over Rhode Island. Last week they really showed how well they can play, crushing the unquestioned #1 New Hampshire. The key to this game is which Madison shows up.
When JMU has the ball
JMU OL vs. W&M DL
The Tribe has had major trouble putting pressure on the QB lately. Sacks have been low, and the opposing team has usually had all day to throw it. Through all that, Adrian Tracy has really stepped up as one of the D’s major contributors. He is leading the team in sacks, tackles for a loss, and tackles. He may not play this week, though, as he was injured late vs. Liberty. Right now his status is uncertain. Josh Wright brings senior leadership to the line, and is #2 on the team in tackles for loss and sacks. Both of these guys need to be in the JMU backfield often if W&M has any shot at winning. Madison’s run blocking this year has been great, and they haven’t given up many sacks if you look away from the App State game(in which they gave up 4). Even when Rascati has gotten sacked, the lost yardage has been low.
JMU running game vs. W&M LB’s
The Tribe has had difficulty stopping the run since Josh Rutter went down, giving up over 180 yards to the halfback in the last 2 games and the the opponent’s starting RB’s average over the last 3 games is 150. Last week Trevor McLaurin was unseated from his starting position for the first time this year, and his replacement, Chris Ndubueze made it worthwhile. He had 11 tackles and a big-time sack. Michael Pigram made his 6th straight start at LB, and Travis McLaurin his third. Pigram got 10 tackles last week and is third on the team, while Travis only got 1 tackle and is 7th on the team. He only has 4 unassisted tackles on the year. Madison had trouble running the ball the first 2 games, but has come on very strong since. In their last 4 games they have rushed for over 247 yards, including 335 vs. Northeastern. That probably has a lot to do with the emergence of junior tailback Eugene Holloman. In his last 3 games he has run for 396(132 per) yards and 4 TD’s. Senior’s Maurice Fenner and Alvin Banks came into the season with high expectations, but Fenner has yet to rush for over 100 yards and Banks has only done it vs. VMI. Fenner has missed the last 2 games due to injury and Banks sat out vs. UNH. Fenner will not be playing vs. W&M. He has been suspended for 2 games due to missing a team bus.
JMU passing game vs. W&M DB’s
W&M has been solid at stopping the pass this year, opponents gain an average of 155 ypg(a number padded by blowouts vs. UMass, UMD) through the air. Senior’s Richard Riley and Alan Wheeling have been key this year, but Alan Wheeling’s status is uncertain after getting injured late in the Liberty game. Last week Wheeling joined Riley and Allen, getting his first INT of the year and returning it 33 yards. Sophomore Derek Cox has also played well and has a bright future. Madison has a great QB in Justin Rascati, but passing just isn’t Mickey Mathews thing. They only throw the ball around 18 times a game, and in the last 2 weeks have thrown it a total of 28 times. When they do throw, though, Rascati has been great. He averages 162 ypg passing and has thrown 8 TD’s compared to 3 INT’s. Though no Madison receivers have really stuck out over the last 3 games, LC Baker was spectacular in his first few games and has 359 yards and 4 TD’s receiving over the course of the season.
When W&M has the ball
W&M OL vs. JMU DL
Finally, the Tribe O-Line wasn’t horrible last week. Liberty got zero sacks and Elijah Brooks ran for over 100 yards. If this O-Line shows up next week I like our chances much more. Madison DT Chuck SuPPon had 3.5 sacks last week vs. New Hampshire, and is second on the team in sacks. End Kevin Winston is right behind him with 4 sacks on the year. They are both seniors, and are trailed by junior tackle John Baranowski who has 3. The 3 of them combine for 18 tackles for loss, and have no doubt been productive this year. The Tribe OL will have their hands full this weekend.
W&M running game vs. JMU LB’s
Elijah Brooks has had 2 100+ yard games this season, one vs. VMI and the other vs. and underrated Liberty run D. All 5 of his TD’s have come in those games. He has also had 2 average games, vs. MD(62) and Hofstra(79), and 2 terrible ones vs. Maine(29) and UMass(35). But Elijah has not been the problem. He can’t gain yards if he doesn’t have holes. If the O-Line plays well this weekend, Elijah will too. Also, if Jake Phillips starts at QB he is always a threat to run. JMU senior LB Akeem Jordon is leading the team in tackles for loss and tackles, and has 3 sacks. Senior Isaiah Dottin-Carter is leading the team in sacks(5), is 3rd in tackles for loss(6), and 2nd in tackles(54). This battle will surely be interesting.
W&M passing game vs. JMU DB’s
For W&M, the passing game all depends on which QB is in. Jake Phillips has been bad passing this year, with a completion percentage under 50%, low yardage gained, and only 4 TD’s compared to 3 INT’s. With Mike Potts, however, has been great passing the ball. In 50 less attempts, Potts has the same number of TD’s(4)and 2 less INT’s(1). He also has 519 yards in only 72 attempts and a 61% completion percentage. He also gets the ball out quickly, getting sacked only twice with a lack of mobility. Junior Joe Nicholas has been solid all year at WR, but last week he only gained 18 yards. RJ Archer, who has jumped onto the scene as one of the Tribes top receivers, made a huge catch that set up a TD and gained a total of 49 yards. DJ McAulay was a great big play threat, but it is looking to me like he won’t play this weekend for the second straight week. Elliot Mack was supposed to be one of the Tribe’s top receivers this year, but has disappeared the last 3 weeks. Elijah Brooks and Matt Trinkle have also been solid contributors to the passing game. The last 2 games the Dukes pass D has been suspect, giving up 352 yards to a spectacular UNH offense and 172 yards to a URI team that has always been a running team. They’ve got 4 INT’s on the year, the biggest being Marcus Haywood’s pick-6 vs. UNH. The secondary is led by Tony LeZotte, a JUNIOR! JUNIOR I SAY! and one of the top DB’s in I-AA.
Special Teams
LC Baker looks like an above-average return man, gaining 73 yards on 2 kickoff returns vs. UNH last week and over 10 yards per punt return over the season. The punting duties for JMU go to Jason Pritchard, I believe a sibling of W&M kicker Blair Pritchard. He averages almost 38 yards per punt, and has kicked-off 11 touchbacks this year. The kicker has been David Rabil. I’m not impressed by his numbers, 3/4 on the year with a long of 25. I’m wondering if he has enough range. He is 27-27 on extra points. Punt returning for W&M this year has been average at best. Derek Cox, hasn’t really broken one yet this year, but he is good for a few yards every return. David Caldwell did the kickoff returns in place of DeBrian Holmes vs. Liberty, and was impressive. Gained 67 yards on 2 returns. W&M kicker Blair Pritchard hasn’t been a whole lot better than Rabil. He is 2-3 with a long of 30, though his miss was on a kick of 38 yards while Rabil’s was much shorter. Pritchard has really improved in the last few games. He is 14-14 on extra points.
Final Predictions
JMU comes out flat and the Tribe makes some big plays through the passing game. The Tribe gives the Dukes a scare on homecoming, but JMU pulls away in the 4th quarter and cruises to a 31-17 win.
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October 22nd, 2006 at 4:04 pm
[…] By the way, check out my prediction […]