W&M @ UMass Preview
Posted by TTHS on October 3rd, 2006
When UMass has the ball
UMass OL vs. W&M DL
The Tribe D-Line got zero pressure on the QB last week, but CJ Herbert and Adrian Tracy had good games. Wright stepping up this week would be huge. The UMass O-Line is stocked full with upperclassmen, and they’ve only given up 4 sacks in 4 games. This will be one of the key spots in the game next week, as the Tribe’s lack of pressure last week gave Hofstra all the time in the world to throw. If we can at least get some pressure on the QB, I’ll be happy.
UMass running game vs. W&M LB’s
Steve Baylark has been extremely consistent, gaining 80-105 yards in every game this year. He, and Tim Washington(110 yards, 2 TD’s) will give the Tribe D trouble all day. The loss of Rutter should really hurt this week, but if Michael Pigram can play like last week(10 tackles), the loss will go unnoticed. The McLaurin bros. should be solid as always, and Trevor brings a bunch of speed to the LB’s. Chris Ndubueze should get increased playing time, and that’s always good in my book. This is probably the 2 teams strengths facing off(at least on that side of the ball).
UMass passing game vs. W&M DB’s
UMass averages 207 yards passing per game, which is not all that impressive as W&M is in that neighborhood also. Quarterback Liam Coen has completed 65 percent of passes this year, and has 7 TD’s compared to 3 INT’s. Wide Receiver Brandon London lit it up vs. Villanova, gaining over 100 yards, but has done very little in the other games. Rasheed Rancher is leading the teams in yards. He only had one catch last week, but it was a 89 yard TD pass. W&M’s pass defense has been pretty good this year, especially last week when they kept Hofstra’s passing game down even though Clarkson had all the time he wanted to throw. Cox, Wheeling, Allen, and Riley have really formed a strong core.
When W&M has the ball
W&M OL vs. UMass DL
W&M’s offensive line has been terrible this year. If Jake Philliips weren’t so mobile, the sack number would probably be doubled. This team only goes as far as the O-Line takes them, and that probably won’t be too far. UMass has 7 sacks on the year, but they are well spread(no lineman has more than 1). The line has 2 seniors, 1 junior, and a red-shirt freshman. Unless the Tribe O-Line steps up big time, UMass wins this matchup.
W&M running game vs. UMass LB’s
UMass has a stingy run defense, averaging 123 yards on the ground per game vs. some pretty tough competition. JR. LB Jason Hatchell is leading the team with 30 tackles on the year, and JR. Charles Walker is right behing with 27. The W&M running has been much better in the last 2 weeks. Elijah Brooks was spectacular vs. VMI, and solid(gaining over 100 yards) vs. Hofstra. Much more importantly, he showed a bunch of heart and made a spectacular run late in the game that should have put W&M in a position to win. DeBrian Holmes hasn’t gotten much play time this year but has been pretty good, and Delmus Coley, who I think will have a big impact on the rest of the season, is finally back.
W&M passing game vs. UMass DB’s
UMass only has 2 picks this year, and have been a little bit better than W&M at defending the pass. They are extremely veteran, with 3 seniors. The W&M passing game hasn’t been good this year, save a few big plays. Jake Phillips has had constant pressure on him which has caused a lot of his throws to be off line, but even when he has time hitting the receivers in stride has been an issue. He has completed only 50% of his passes, and has only 4 TD’s compared to 2 INT’s. Back-up QB Mike Potts, on the other hand, has completed 85% of his passes for 3 TD’s and almost 200 yards on only 12 attempts. Many Tribe fans think he deserves a shot. When it comes to the receivers, Joe Nicholas has been consistantly good every game, with a season total of 240 yards and 3 TD’s. Next up is DJ McAulay, who has gained 200 yards and a TD and is a good big-play threat. Receiver Elliot Mack is also a big play receiver, but last week he disappeared catching no passes. He only has 98 yards on the year but has 2 TD’s. RJ Archer, Elijah Brooks, and Matt Trinkle have also been solid contributors to the passing game.
Special Teams
JJ Moore must have broken a couple against Stony Brook when it comes to punt returning. 68 yards on 2 returns. Courtney Robinson has an impressive 203 yards on 7 kickoff returns, including 100 against Villanova. Chris Koepplin is only 5-8 on FG’s this year. The punter, Koegel, has pinned the opposing team inside the 20 on punts 4 times. Blair Pritchard is 2-3 on FG’s, but has little range. He is 11-11 on PAT’s. William and Mary’s returning has been below average. Derek Cox averages 8 yards per punt return, and DeBrian Holmes averages 17 yards per kickoff return.
Final Prediction
I really think W&M keeps this one close. Elijah runs for 100+ yards and Phillips makes some big plays in the passing game, but Steve Baylark busts some big runs late to give UMass a fairly comfortable win. 27-17.
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